The Mississippi State Bulldogs entered the 2026 college baseball season with the pedigree, the talent and the manager to win the College World Series.
It’s why they received the second-most first-place votes to win the SEC in the preseason coaches’ poll. And after an 11-0 start to the season, it seemed like nothing could quiet the cowbells in Starkville.
But then a rash of one-run losses threw cold water on the Bulldogs.
From March 1 through mid-April, Brian O'Connor’s team dropped five games by one run or in extra innings to ranked opponents.
Then things really got ugly. The Tennessee Volunteers swept MSU earlier this month, pushing the Bulldogs out of the top 10 for the first time this season. It caused Miss State’s national title odds to extend out into double digits.
Since that humbling defeat to the Vols, the team has righted the ship, winning eight straight. Their odds have slowly dropped in the market, but there’s still time to grab them at a juicy number before they make their stretch run in SEC play.
With that said, let's dive into my college baseball picks and College World Series futures with time winding down in the regular season.
College Baseball Picks, Futures
Mississippi State to Win College World Series (+1600)
Mississippi State's current winning streak can be traced back to its lineup, which has been white-hot. The Bulldogs are once again in the top 20 in team batting average, slugging percentage and home runs.
The unrelenting pressure this lineup places on opposing pitchers can’t be overstated. In a recent sweep of LSU, O'Connor’s lineup regularly featured 7-8 hitters batting over .300. Scoring 32 runs in a three-game set with LSU speaks to their offensive ceiling.
But if I had to pin my hopes on one group to carry Mississippi State to its second national title in the past six years, it would have to be this pitching staff.
Pick a metric, and the Bulldogs are elite. Their staff ERA, K/BB ratio, WHIP and even their team fielding percentage rank in the top 20.
Lefty Tomas Valincius, who followed O’Connor from Virginia, has been a revelation on the bump. As the ace of this staff, he has posted an ERA of 2.13 with a K/9 rate of 12.63.
In recent showdowns with conference powers Arkansas, Georgia and Ole Miss, he was dialed in. Valincius tossed 19 1/3 innings against the Hogs, Dawgs and Rebels, striking out 26 batters while allowing only two earned runs.
He’s ready for the pressure of postseason baseball.
An added piece of good news is that Ryan McPherson, a starter with first-round potential in the 2027 MLB Draft, is progressing nicely from a forearm strain.
McPherson began a throwing program on April 12 and is expected back before a College World Series run, according to a report from Mississippi Clarion-Ledger beat reporter Sam Sklar.
He was off to a dominant start this season, and he provides MSU with versatility should O’Connor choose to reinsert him into the starting rotation or use him out of the bullpen. McPherson recorded three saves as a freshman last season.
When Valincius and the other Bulldog starters turn the ball over to their bullpen, there’s a host of live arms ready to beat back any late-game rally.
Ben Davis has settled into a closing role, and the big senior righty has landed on the midseason NCBWA Stopper of the Year watchlist. His sinker can be elite when paired with a mid-90s two-seam fastball.
What’s interesting — and so valuable — about Davis is that he's capable of a three-inning save. So, despite above-average velocity on his fastball, he doesn’t overexert himself to the point that he’s a 15-20 pitch maximum kind of closer.
Joining Davis in the pen are Maddox Webb and Dane Burns, a relief tandem that has allowed a grand total of three runs in their past 14 appearances.
When tense moments arrive in the postseason, the Bulldogs have a host of quality arms that have been unflappable as of late.
Now is the time to grab Mississippi State because if it wins this weekend’s series at Texas, it’ll be back around +800 to win the national title.
Pick: Mississippi State to Win 2026 College World Series (+1600 · FanDuel)
