Alabama vs Florida Pick & Prediction: Key SEC Duel

The Alabama Crimson Tide and Florida Gators are coming off tough losses on Saturday.

The Tide were ready to knock off Tennesee at home, but the game slipped away in the second half.

Meanwhile, Todd Golden's Gators held a 10-point lead at the under-12 timeout in the second half, but South Carolina went on a run to end the game.

Both teams are looking for redemption as the Tide travel to Gainesville on Tuesday evening.

The last time these two teams met, it was a high-scoring affair that ended with a Tide victory in OT.

There's no questioning Alabama's overall talent, but it's a completely different team when it's on the road. The Crimson Tide defeated the Gators last time on their home floor and were fortunate to do so.

Nate Oats' team has the talent to run deep in March, but lately, its defensive issues have become prevalent. The Tide lead the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, but they rank just 101st in defensive efficiency.

That's still better than more than half of the country, but they will struggle against legitimate offenses. I have a lot of questions about the Tide containing the Gators throughout the contest, especially since they allowed 92 points in the first matchup.

Alabama ranks outside the top 250 in the following defensive categories:

• Turnover Percentage
• Defensive Rebounding Percentage
• FTA/FGA

Long story short, the Tide don't force turnovers and are extremely foul-happy on defense. Plus, the Gators are coming off a tough loss, so they'll be fired up to exact revenge at home.

Fortunately for the Tide, their offense is elite enough that they can outlast their defensive issues. However, the Gators have been much better on the defensive end lately, specifically on the perimeter.

There's no such thing as shutting down Alabama completely, but Florida can temporarily slow the Tide down throughout the contest.

This should be a close game, but the Tide are in danger of dropping back-to-back matchups.

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Florida has proven over the last couple of weeks that it could be a dangerous dark horse in March. Despite losing the first matchup to the Tide, there's reason to believe it can get revenge at home.

Golden's team ranks 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 88th in defensive efficiency. However, the Gators defense has come a long way from the beginning of the year.

Offensively, they can score all over the floor and rank third in offensive rebounding. That's massive against an Alabama team that's horrible in the defensive rebounding department.

Florida doesn't have sparkling numbers from beyond the arc, but it's more than capable of scoring consistently without relying on the triple. Between guards Walter Clayton Jr., Zyon Pullin and Riley Kugel, this unit can go shot-for-shot with the Tide's backcourt.

The Gators need to improve from the charity stripe, especially since the Crimson Tide foul a ton. Florida has to cash in on its opportunities at the line, and if it doesn't, it could be a key difference-maker in the contest.

Defensively, I commend the Gators for improving throughout the season. The big difference has been their perimeter defense, which is key against the Tide.

It's outlandish to think Florida can completely shut down the Alabama offense all evening, but it's capable of containing the opposition for multiple stretches.

If their offense takes advantage of the Tide's weaknesses, there's a good chance the Gators get revenge at the O'Dome.

The last time these two teams played, I was happy to take the over. But due to the sudden improvement of the Gators' perimeter defense, I like them to get the job done this time around.

I understand both teams are in similar situational spots, but there's a legitimate argument that the Alabama loss was far more devastating than Florida's. The Tide got punched in the mouth by Tennessee in the second half, and they no longer control their own destiny to win the SEC regular-season title.

Meanwhile, the Gators' loss didn't impact much except their SEC Tournament seed, as they're a lock for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

They also should have beaten the Tide in the first matchup, so I expect a fiery effort from them. There are just too many issues for the Alabama defense right now, and it's far less superior on the road.

Chomp chomp.

Pick: Florida +1.5 (Play to -1)

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