Bama vs. UNC: Predictions, Picks, Odds

I think UNC is undervalued.

The consensus on the Heels entering the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament was that they were way overseeded, alongside being the worst top seed by far.

To be fair, they're only ranked ninth in KenPom, behind Arizona, Duke, Iowa State and Tennessee.

And, to be fair, they're the worst top seed. But I don’t think the gap is as wide as many think.

And I’m much less bullish on Alabama.

You can’t really stop the Tide.

You can only hope to contain them.

Or, more specifically, out-score them.

Mark Sears and Aaron Estrada are two of college basketball’s best scoring guards, and they'll smoke you with on-ball or off-ball creation.

Nate Oats leaned heavily into small-ball lineups during the second half of the season, playing Rylan Griffen at the four. Griffen has destroyed bigger/slower frontcourt mismatches with moves like this:

But by playing smaller, Oats has sacrificed any attempt at rim protection or rebounding, a massive problem for a drop-coverage defense.

Alabama funnels everything toward the post but has a horrendous post-up defense. The Tide allow 34 paint points, 25 at-the-rim field goal attempts and 13 second-chance points per game, all bottom-80 marks nationally.

And they foul like crazy, which is also very uncharacteristic of a drop. It’s really bad — Alabama doesn't even crack the top 100 teams in defensive efficiency.

There’s a lot to love about the Heels.

RJ Davis is a madman with unparalleled dribble-penetration and shot-creation skills. Elliot Cadeau has improved mightily as a facilitator. Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan are efficient scorers on the wing. Armando Bacot is still among the nation’s best post-scorers and two-way rebounders.

But the defense has been arguably more impressive.

North Carolina has sneaked up to sixth nationally in defensive efficiency. The Heels rank in the top 25 in 2-point defense and in the top 30 in paint points per game allowed. They’re good against ball screens, excellent in the post, rebound everything and seldom foul.

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Of great importance to this matchup, North Carolina has an elite transition defense and an elite rim-and-3 defense.

The Heels allow the fewest fast-break points per game of any D-I team, while ranking fourth in rim-and-3 PPP allowed.

That’s the key to stopping Oats-ball.

Coach Oats prioritizes up-tempo pace and efficient basketball, meaning zero mid-range shots. So, the Tide are running right into the Heels’ hands.

North Carolina is still vulnerable to isolation ball and secondary perimeter actions, so Sears and Estrada could both have big days.

But, again, you don’t beat the Tide by stopping them.

As mentioned, the Tide run a drop-coverage defense with zero rim protection.

Drop-coverage overplays ball-handlers on the perimeter and shooters on the wing, baiting on-ball middle-of-the-floor creation.

Nobody does that better than Davis.

And Bacot should have an absolute field day in post-up sets, especially against Grant Nelson, who allows over 1.00 post-up PPP.

North Carolina scores 12 second-chance points and shoots 23 free throws per game.

Alabama’s transition defense should hold up, but the Tide will score on every possession in the half-court, whether it’s Davis in the mid-range, Bacot in the post, Bacot on the offensive glass or anybody at the line.

Meanwhile, I trust North Carolina’s elite transition and rim denial defense will generate enough tough stops against an elite offense to reach another Elite Eight.

Besides, I don’t trust Alabama, which exploded against Charleston (KenPom No. 100) but needed a late-game 17-3 run against Grand Canyon (KenPom No. 50) to reach the second weekend.

North Carolina controlled and bullied Michigan State for 40 minutes – KenPom No. 16 Sparty!

Pick: North Carolina -4.5 (Play to -5)