The Arkansas Razorbacks play the Arizona Wildcats in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament from San Jose, California. Tip-off is set for 9:45 p.m. ET on CBS.
Arizona is favored by -7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -360. Meanwhile, Arkansas is the underdog at +8.5 with a moneyline of +285. The total is set at 165.5 points.
Here’s my Arkansas vs. Arizona predictions and college basketball picks for March 26, 2026.
Arkansas vs Arizona Prediction
My Pick: Arizona -9.5 (play to -10.5)
My Arkansas vs Arizona best bet is on the Wildcats to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Arkansas vs Arizona Odds
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -108 | 165.5 -112o / -108u | +285 |
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -112 | 165.5 -112o / -108u | -360 |
- Arkansas vs Arizona spread: Arkansas +7.5 (-108) Arizona -8.5 (-112)
- Arkansas vs Arizona over/under: 165.5 (O -112 / U -108)
- Arkansas vs Arizona moneyline: Arkansas +285, Arizona -360
Arkansas vs Arizona College Basketball Betting Preview
Arkansas vs Arizona Pick, Betting Analysis
Almost no coach is better at playing the underdog role than John Calipari. The last time the legendary coach didn't cover as an underdog in the NCAA Tourney? 2007. He has a 9.5 point cushion to cover with Arkansas in the Sweet 16.
The good thing about this matchup is that we could draw a few comfortable opponents and see how Arkansas fared against elite teams that dominate the glass and the two-point battle on both ends.
The Razorbacks lost 111-77 to Florida, lost by nine points to Houston and Duke, and only three points to Michigan State back in November.
I view this matchup as a very difficult one for the underdog Razorbacks. They struggle to defend the rim, as opponents shoot 54% on 2s. Some of that is a Darius Acuff issue, too. He’s a brutal defender, and Big 12 POY Jaden Bradley could have a field day against him.
They also struggle on the defensive glass, giving up offensive rebounds at a 31% rate. That is the biggest worry against Arizona, which collects 38% of its misses on the offensive glass. That's what gave them the edge in the Round of 32 win against Utah State — grabbing 22 offensive boards.
Arizona is truly unique on the offensive end. The offensive boards are huge, but they shoot 3s just 26% of the time. They're an opportunistic shooting team. Brayden Burries is the only starter who can drill 3s consistently, but Anthony Dell'Orso is a big-time shooter off the bench. It's a bit of an old-school style of toughness and physical play leading the way instead of shooting. This feels like a game Bradley rises to the occasion in, though.
Additionally, Arkansas is relatively thin in terms of depth. We'll see if backup big man Nick Pringle plays after missing both games last week. If Pringle plays, that'll give Arkansas a seven-man rotation. If Pringle is out, Arkansas won't have a backup big man. That'll force them to keep Malique Ewin and Trevon Brazile in the game, even if they get in foul trouble.
And foul trouble is a real concern against Arizona. The 7-2 big man, Mo Krivas, is the king of drawing fouls, ranking 25th in FT Rate. Tobe Awaka and Koa Peat are also physical and can easily bait the Razorbacks into fouling.
This will have to be a flawless offensive game for Arkansas. It ranks fifth in offensive efficiency and boasts the best turnover rate nationally (12.2%). The Razorbacks also shoot 38% from deep (10th) and 55% on 2s (45th).
I expect Arizona to dare some of the Arkansas non-shooters to shoot. Billy Richmond is a great driver, but a non-shooter. Trevon Brazile is a bit streaky from deep, and Malique Ewin isn't a shooting big man.
The good news is that Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas are dynamic shot creators and can shoot better than 40% from deep. That pair will have to dominate and likely combine for 60+ points to have a chance to beat or cover against Arkansas.
I'd expect a fast pace in this one. Arkansas is 16th in adjusted tempo, and Arizona is 65th. To me, that favors Arizona. The Wildcats can contain Arkansas's transition offense, and Arkansas's poor defense can be beaten in transition.
Scoring inside won't be easy for Arkansas. Even if Acuff can sneak past the pesky on-ball defense from Bradley, he'll have to meet Krivas at the hoop. I think all of that will be a boost for the No. 1 seed.
I'm laying the points here. I think a double-digit win is coming for an Arizona team that has been dominant all season long.
My Pick: Arizona -9.5 (play to -10.5)
