The Baylor Bears take on the Arizona State Sun Devils in the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City, Missouri, on Tuesday, March 10. Tip-off is set for 12:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Baylor is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -160. Arizona State, meanwhile, enters as a +3.5 underdog and is +135 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The total is set at 158 points.
Here’s my Baylor vs. Arizona State prediction and college basketball picks for Tuesday, March 10.
Baylor vs Arizona State Prediction
My Pick: Baylor -3.5
My Baylor vs Arizona St best bet is on the Bears to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Baylor vs Arizona State Odds
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 158 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 158 -110o / -110u | +135 |
- Baylor vs Arizona State Spread: Baylor -3.5, Arizona State +3.5
- Baylor vs Arizona State Over/Under: 158 Points
- Baylor vs Arizona State Moneyline: Baylor -160, Arizona St +135
Baylor vs Arizona State College Basketball Betting Preview
Baylor Basketball
Baylor is undeniably playing some great basketball at the right time. The Bears have no chance to make the NCAA Tournament — unless they win the Big 12 tournament, so this is it for them.
Over the Bears' final five games, they ranked 16th in Bart Torvik’s rankings. It wasn’t against some bad teams, either. Baylor kept it close against Arizona and Houston — while beating UCF and this same ASU team.
Baylor is one of the best offensive teams in the Big 12, ranking 22nd in offensive efficiency, per KenPom. They’re terrific at driving to the hoop, leading to a strong 59% 2-point percentage. Crashing the glass is another strength of Baylor’s offense, grabbing offensive boards at a 37% clip.
The duo of Cameron Carr and Tounde Yessoufou is pretty lethal.
Carr is super athletic and can easily drop 30-plus points when he catches fire from deep. He leads the team with 19.7 PPG and shoots 51% from the field and 39% from deep.
Yessoufou is built like a tank. At 6-foot-5 and 215 pounds, he's tough to contain when he’s driving to the basket. He just trails Carr in scoring with 18 PPG.
The Bears have two key issues: One is their defense, which ranks 122nd in defensive efficiency.
They struggle to defend the arc, as opponents spot 35% from deep. Finishing out possessions is another issue. Opponents grab offensive boards at a 35% clip.
The second issue is depth.
It turns out that adding James Nnaji from the G-League didn’t save the day. The Bears' rotation usually runs seven deep, and if Scott Drew dares to play Nnaji, they can go eight deep.
That could be more of a factor later in the tournament, but it won’t matter a ton in Game 1 of the Big 12 Tournament.
Bobby Hurley is likely in his final season at Arizona State. He’s been with the program since 2015, but his contract is up at season’s end. We’ll see if that motivates the team to play for him.
Arizona State Basketball
The Sun Devils aren’t a horrible team — they finished the year with a 16-15 record and a 7-11 mark in Big 12 play.
The biggest problem for Arizona State in this matchup is rebounding.
Starting center Massamba Diop is a total stud, but ASU gives up offensive rebounds at a 34% clip. Baylor had just five in its lone duel against ASU. It’s good that the Sun Devils held the Bears to just five, but it’s still a concern this time.
It’ll be imperative to get a big scoring game from Moe Odum. He leads the team with 17 PPG and shoots an elite 39% from deep.
Odum is one of three ASU players who score in double figures. The versatile 7-foot-1 Diop tallies 13.9, and Anthony “Pig” Johnson, who boasts elite quickness and defense, averages 13.3.
Baylor vs Arizona State Pick, Betting Analysis
Nothing about this Arizona State team is very scary. It ranks 72nd in offensive efficiency and 69th in defensive efficiency — just a painfully mediocre high-major team.
In fact, the best thing ASU does is reach the foul line at a 39.8% rate. However, Baylor rarely fouls, which will force the Sun Devils to make shots.
Baylor is the better team, and -3.5 is still a good enough number to warrant taking the Bears.
My Pick: Baylor -3.5
