The Baylor Bears take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Stillwater, OK. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Oklahoma State is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a price of 50 cents to win and the total set at 168.5 points on Fanatics Markets.
Here’s my Baylor vs. Oklahoma State predictions and college basketball picks for January 13, 2026.
Baylor vs Oklahoma State Prediction
My Pick: Under 168.5 (Play to 166)
My Baylor vs Oklahoma State best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Odds
(If you're unfamiliar with Fanatics Markets, read more here.)
Baylor vs Oklahoma State College Basketball Betting Preview
Baylor Basketball
The Bears are 10-5 on the season and have been tumbling since the turn of the calendar. Scott Drew’s crew is 0-3 in Big 12 play, dropping a road game at TCU 69-63 and losing home matchups to elite units in Iowa State and Houston.
Baylor hasn't beaten anyone inside the top 275 on KenPom since Thanksgiving. The Bears have fallen from the mid-20s on KenPom all the way down to 42nd.
The main story in the college basketball world with this Baylor team has been its midseason signing of the former 32nd pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, the 7-foot-0, 255-pound big man James Nnaji. This unprecedented move has unsurprisingly received plenty of pushback.
If any power-conference team was going to add a big man midseason, Baylor was the most needy of it. High Point transfer Juslin Bodo Bodo suffered an injury this past summer, and he would've started at the five.
Although this is an elite offensive rebounding unit (fourth nationally on KenPom), Baylor is atrocious on the defensive glass. It's dead last among all power schools in defensive rebounding percentage, allowing an average of 19.3 offensive rebounds per game so far in Big 12 play.
On the bright side for Baylor, Cameron Carr has been a revelation for this group, becoming one of the best scoring guards in the country. He’s up to 20.5 points per game on the season, while shooting 54.5% from the field and 39.7% from deep on over five attempts per game.
He’s a big reason why this offense ranks 21st on KenPom.
Five-star freshman Tounde Yessoufou started the season strong and is averaging 17.5 points per game. However, he’s really struggled in Big 12 play. He’s 11-of-31 from the field with 11 turnovers through the first three games.
Also of note, Dan Skillings Jr. suffered a knee injury on Saturday in the loss to Houston. His return timetable is unclear, but he’ll definitely be out for this one.
Oklahoma State Basketball
The Cowboys have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament in year two under Steve Lutz. Oklahoma State is 13-3 on the season and is off to a 1-2 start in Big 12 play.
Oklahoma State secured a nice ranked win at home over UCF a week ago, but it fell 83-71 at Iowa State on Saturday. Back on January 3, the Cowboys couldn’t keep up with Texas Tech’s high-powered offense, falling 102-80.
Lutz’s group checks in at 55th on KenPom, 64th offensively and 76th on defense. This team really wants to push the pace, as this is the fourth-fastest squad in the nation.
12 different players have started games for Oklahoma State so far this season, and Lutz has deployed a different starting lineup in 13 straight games.
Anthony Roy leads the way, averaging 17.6 points per game, transitioning very well from the mid-major ranks after he led the nation in scoring last season for Green Bay.
Second-leading scorer Vyctorius Miller was a game-time decision and was eventually held out of Saturday’s loss. His status for this one is unclear at the moment.
With Roy, Miller, Kanye Clary and Jaylen Curry, the Cowboys have four guards who can successfully create shots for themselves and others.
Defensively, this group isn’t great, lacking real disruption and rim protection. The Pokes are bottom three in the Big 12 in league play so far in turnover rate, block rate and steal rate.
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Betting Analysis
As mentioned above, Baylor has been getting absolutely killed on the offensive glass lately. Luckily for it, Oklahoma State is last in the Big 12 in offensive rebounding rate.
While that sign would nudge me toward backing Baylor here, I can’t get there. I don’t feel comfortable taking this Baylor team on the road with such little shot creation as of late outside of Carr.
Drew doesn’t have the three-plus high-level rim-attacking and 3-point-shooting guards that we’ve come accustomed to over the past several years with this iteration of Baylor.
I'm fairly out on this Baylor squad, and while I like a lot about Oklahoma State, it could easily be outmatched by the talent and athleticism the Bears.
All that to say, I think the tempo could be a bit slower than expected here. Baylor hasn’t scored over 63 points in three games and should be able to get more stops against a team that won’t create second-chance opportunities.
Oklahoma State’s transition attack may be slowed down by the fact that it needs to bring more bodies to the defensive glass.
I think there’s value on the under.
My Pick: Under 168.5 (Play to 166)
