College Basketball Best Bets | 3 Wednesday Picks
Photo by Jeff Speer/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Kevin Kruger (UNLV)
Today, we have only one top-25 team in action, but the Barstool Sports Invitational takes center stage from Chicago, and there's always betting value to be had on the odds board.
Our staff has college basketball best bets and 3 Wednesday picks, including Southern vs. UNLV on November 8.
College Basketball Best Bets | 3 Wednesday Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 8 p.m. | ||
| 9:30 p.m. | ||
| 10 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Lipscomb vs. Drake
By Kevin Rogers
Lipscomb has one game under its belt, a 79-56 defeat at Wichita State as 9.5-point road underdogs. The Bisons fell behind by 13 points at the half and couldn’t climb out of that hole, as they shot 9-of-37 from 3-point range.
Drake takes the court for the first time since its heartbreaking loss to Miami in the first round of the NCAA tournament. The Bulldogs are coming off a terrific 27-8 season that included a Missouri Valley Conference Tournament title.
Last season, Drake posted a 5-6 ATS record as a double-digit favorite, while only three of those victories came by 15 points or more.
The Bulldogs showcase last season’s MVC Player of the Year in Tucker DeVries, who averaged 19.0 points per game. However, DeVries is only one of two returning starters from last season’s team, as three players who combined for nearly 30 points per game are no longer on the roster.
Following a subpar performance against Wichita State in the opener, expect Lipscomb to play better tonight while receiving a nice amount of points on the road.
Pick: Lipscomb +15.5 (Play to +15)
Use our FanDuel Promo Code to get the most out of your Lipscomb vs. Drake action.
Arizona State vs. Mississippi State
By D.J. James
This will be the first game of the season for these two, and it’ll take place on a neutral floor (Wintrust Arena in Chicago).
Arizona State comes into this season ranked 79th in KenPom, while Mississippi State is 31st.
ASU loses both Desmond and Devan Cambridge, as well as DJ Horne and Warren Washington. These four made up over 40 points per game.
Adding Kamari Lands (Louisville), Bryant Selebangue (Tulsa), Zane Meeks (San Francisco), Shawn Phillips, Jr. (LSU) and Brycen Long (Houston Christian) could help cut into those losses, but the offensive schemes will alter around a new bunch. Adam Miller (LSU) could also be in the mix, but he hasn’t been cleared yet by the NCAA.
Frankie Collins, Jamiya Neal and Alonzo Gaffney also return, but it will take some time to become cohesive. Also, Gaffney is currently out with an undisclosed injury.
Now, Mississippi State lost a few players and hit the transfer portal hard, too, but it keeps the continuity in its starting lineup.
These are two defensive-minded teams. The Bulldogs come into this season ranked 10th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (KenPom), while the Sun Devils are 59th.
The Bulldogs thrived with holding teams to a low 3-point attempt percentage last season, and that will not change here. Arizona State ranked 297th (Shot Quality) in frequency attacking the rim and only shot 68.9% from the free-throw line.
Mississippi State didn’t necessarily do well at the line, either (64.7%), but it ranked 50th in finishing at the rim. The Bulldogs also got fouled more often.
Finally, ASU struggled on the glass last season (166th), while Mississippi State excelled (7th). The Bulldogs have the same squad and should look similar. Yes, the Sun Devils will figure it out in the long run, but they won’t automatically cut into that rebounding edge.
Look for the Bulldogs to take this one. Play it to -6.
Pick: Mississippi State -4.5 (Play to -6)
Southern vs. UNLV
This is partially an analytics play and partially a common sense pick.
On the analytics side, go ahead and pick your favorite publicly available model — KenPom, T-Rank, EvanMiya — they all rate this as UNLV -20 or higher.
Each of those models is factoring in Southern’s season debut Monday night, a 33-point loss in which it allowed TCU to ring up 108 points.
That leads into the common sense portion of the pick: the Jaguars played in Fort Worth on Monday and now fly to Vegas to meet a fresh-legged UNLV team.
That’s child’s play for an NBA team or even a seasoned college team late in the season, but for a low-major squad still getting its sea legs for the season, it’s a major red flag.
Pick: UNLV -18.5
Want extra upside for your Southern vs. UNLV action? Use Action’s FanDuel Promo Code for bonus bets.
How would you rate this article?