It's Finals Week for most college kids across the country, so expect a smaller slate of college basketball games this week.
However, Tuesday is a rather intriguing slate, headlined by Louisville traveling to Knoxville to play Tennessee in a major non-conference battle.
Read on for our college basketball best bets and NCAAB expert picks for Tuesday, December 16.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Louisville vs. Tennessee Pick
By Sean Paul
I think Tennessee gets it done.
Backing the Vols as a short home favorite against a team that figures to have some ebbs and flows based on its style is something I have to take.
What are the odds Tennessee is this bad offensively all season? Barnes isn't exactly a Nate Oats offensive coaching mind, but I think the Vols are closer to a top-30 offense nationally.
Once Nate Ament gets rolling, Tennessee's offense will improve.
Check out Sean's full Louisville-Tennessee breakdown here:
Pick: Tennessee -3 or Better
| | | |
DePaul vs. St. John's Pick
By Jim Root
This matchup sets up well for St. John’s as a large favorite, particularly due to the game’s likely up-tempo pace, the Red Storm’s quality depth, and the overall physical mismatch.
My most glaring question is whether DePaul can handle the Johnnies’ ball pressure for 40 minutes. For the Blue Demons, this will be their first opposing defense to rank in the top 100 in forced turnover rate, with the Johnnies ranking 28th.
While DePaul ranks a respectable 148th in avoiding miscues, that number has been achieved against a bottom-five strength of schedule. The leap in opponent quality and pressure is massive and will take its toll.
Offensively, DePaul’s path to staying competitive would require extra possessions through offensive rebounding, particularly from the active frontcourt trio of Benson, Fabian Flores, and Khaman Maker.
Outside of that group, though, getting on the offensive glass is not a team strength of priority. Outside of the well-built Benson, DePaul lacks consistent physicality on the glass, making it difficult to offset miscues and compete in the shot volume department.
That’s exacerbated by having fewer perimeter marksmen than last season, as well.
St. John’s, meanwhile, has shown a tendency to extend margins late at home against inferior athletes. While DePaul is probably a class above Bucknell, William & Mary, and Quinnipiac, the Blue Demons still cannot measure up to the Red Storm.
The hosts’ quality depth allows Pitino to maintain pressure, push tempo, and wear teams down – a dangerous formula for a top-heavy DePaul roster.
From a spot perspective, there's some risk of St. John's looking ahead to a neutral site showdown with Kentucky on Saturday. Pitino surely has the clash with his former school and player (Mark Pope) on his mind, and Hopkins began his career there.
But this is a conference game, and Pitino is a master motivator, so I do not envision a lazy effort.
More possessions generally favor the better, deeper team, and St. John’s style almost guarantees a high-possession game.
If the Johnnies generate turnovers and convert them into transition points, this matchup has blowout potential.
The number is high, but with the pace, I am willing to lay up to 19.
Check out Jim's full DePaul-St. John's breakdown here:
Pick: St. John's -19 or Better
| | | |
Marist vs. Georgia Tech Pick
John Dunne always coaches up elite defenses, and this year is no different.
Marist’s defense is one of the most overlooked in the nation. In my power ratings, the Red Foxes rank in the top 50 nationally in defensive efficiency.
They run an extremely disciplined drop coverage that walls off the paint and the rim (opponents are shooting 53% at the rim on 14 attempts per game, both marks ranking in the top 30 nationally). Still, they force far more turnovers than a typical drop (21%, top 30 nationally).
The only issue is that Marist is due for a good amount of negative regression on defense, as opponents won’t shoot 26% from 3 forever.
However, Georgia Tech is not the team to force that regression.
The Yellow Jackets are an interior-based offense that relies heavily on roll-man creation in ball screens. That doesn’t match up well with Marist’s defense, but the outlook is even worse considering that top roll man Baye Ndongo is potentially still injured.
Even worse, Georgia Tech’s transition-reliant offense won’t get anything against Marist’s elite transition defense, and the Ramblin’ Wreck are a Ramblin’ Mess in the half-court (.87 PPP, 22nd percentile).
While Ndongo’s absence won’t help the Georgia Tech defense, the Yellow Jackets are still formidable on that end, and I have zero faith in Marist’s offense after losing elite playmaking guard Josh Pascarelli in the offseason — the Foxes rank sub-300th nationally in offensive efficiency for a reason.
Marist will try to create via DHO and cutting actions, but the Yellow Jackets are elite in defending both actions (.39 DHO PPP allowed, 98th percentile; 1.02 cutting PPP allowed, 86th percentile).
Altogether, this one should be a grinder, and I project the total slightly below 130, providing a substantial edge over the current market.
Check out all of McGrath's CBB Projections for Tuesday here:
Pick: Under 134 or Better
| | | |
Towson vs. Kansas Pick
Kansas draws Towson with a total of 134.5.
However, our Action PRO projections initially made this total 127.7, before adjusting to 130.1
Therefore, the Under earns an 'A' grade for its nearly 10% edge over the market — one of our strongest PRO projections for Tuesday's slate.
Some of the Action CBB experts are also on this game, as our guy Stuckey has started dipping his toes into the CBB season, while Duck is also taking the Under.
Pick: Towson +17.5 | Under 134.5
| | | |
