College Basketball Best Bets: 3 Picks for Wednesday’s Early Games

Wednesday's Early College Basketball Best Bets

We've finally reached the heart of Champ Week, and that means two things: drama and betting value.

So, with that in mind, here's college basketball best bets, including three picks for Wednesday's early conference tournament games on March 13.

By Kevin Rogers

The 8/9 matchup of the Atlantic 10 tournament should be an interesting contest on Wednesday between Saint Joseph’s and George Mason.

The Patriots routed top-seed Richmond in their season finale for their second straight win, but they didn't have a lot of great wins in A-10 play.

GMU finished 9-9, and its two best wins came against Richmond and Dayton. Those are quality victories, but six other wins came against teams in the bottom six of the league.

Saint Joseph’s also closed 9-9 in the league, which included five losses by four points or fewer. In fact, the Hawks squandered double-digit leads in losses to Rhode Island and Saint Louis, while failing to hold a nine-point second-half advantage in a home loss to Loyola Chicago.

The Hawks defeated the Patriots in their lone matchup this season, 75-73, in Philadelphia. George Mason covered as a 4.5-point underdog but allowed Saint Joe’s to convert on 60.6% of its 2-point attempts.

The 3-point shooting for George Mason should be interesting, as the Patriots ranked 11th in A-10 play from downtown. But at the same time, the Hawks ranked 13th in 3-point defense.

In the first matchup, GMU shot 10-of-27 from long range, with the Patriots misfiring on at least 10 3-point attempts in their last eight games away from Fairfax.

The Hawks played in plenty of close games this season, while losing their last four on the road. However, three of those defeats came against teams in the top four of the A-10.

Let’s back Saint Joe’s to beat George Mason here in this pick’em spot on Wednesday.

Pick: Saint Joe's PK (Play to -1)

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By Brett Pund

Closing out the first day at the AAC tournament, I like UTSA to have the lead at halftime against Temple.

These two squads have faced each other twice over the last six games of the regular season. In both meetings, the Roadrunners were winning at the break by an average of 6.5 points.

UTSA has also averaged 43 points in those first halves, which has been a common theme this season. For the year, the Roadrunners rank in the top 60 in the country in first-half scoring.

Yes, I understand they’re terrible defensively, but I don’t expect the Owls to take advantage. Temple comes into this matchup ranked 314th in first-half scoring, which is one of the main reasons the Owls have been losing at halftime in eight of their nine road games in AAC play.

I also like UTSA’s advanced metrics in recent weeks. Over the last seven contests, Bart Torvik has the Roadrunners rated as the sixth-best team in the American, which is much better than Temple (13th).

I can’t trust UTSA for the full game, but I do like the price for the lowest seed to have the lead at halftime.

Pick: UTSA 1H ML -125 (Play to -135)

By Patrick Strollo

The No. 7 seed Alabama A&M Bulldogs will face the No. 2 seed Alcorn State Braves in the SWAC Tournament this afternoon in Birmingham.

These two schools met just once this season in a contest that saw Alcorn State emerge victorious in a 74-71 victory on Alabama A&M’s home floor.

Now, the Bulldogs will get another crack at the Braves in their home state, and I think the angle here is taking the points that are being offered.

Where I think Alabama A&M is well situated to keep this game close is in transition. It’s one of the faster teams in the nation and has the second-highest tempo in the SWAC with 70.4 possessions per 40 minutes.

When these two teams met back in January, Alabama A&M had only two fastbreak points, but this should revert to the mean heavily.

One other thing I’d like to point out is Alabama A&M’s 2-point defense. It ranks first in this metric in the conference and should be well-situated to cause havoc against the Braves from inside the arc.

My model is projecting Alabama A&M as a two-point underdog, and I recommend taking the points at 2.5 or higher. I like the combination of fast tempo and stingy defense to be the difference-maker for the cover.

Pick: Alabama A&M +4 (Play to +2.5)

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