Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets: Tonight’s Picks

It's been a day full of college basketball, but it's not over yet. Not even close.

Our NCAAB best bets for Wednesday started at 11:30 a.m. ET in our early window, and now they're rolling all the way until 9:30 p.m. ET — and we have some good games on deck.

Whether you're looking to bet some late-night power conference action like Cincinnati vs. Kansas or sweat some mid-major games like Iona vs. Fairfield, we have you covered.

Read on for all nine of our college basketball best bets for Wednesday's late-night conference tournament games — and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more NCAAB picks.

North Carolina sports betting is live! As of March 11, North Carolina residents can bet games at NC legal sportsbooks. Learn about the best North Carolina sports betting apps to place those bets.

Wednesday Night College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from Wednesday night's slate of conference tournament games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By Shane McNichol

This would be a fitting end to the year DePaul has had — arguably the worst season ever submitted by a power conference men’s basketball team.

The Blue Demons went winless in Big East play, losing those 20 games by an average of 23.9 points per game. They lost their 10 games against the five Big East teams currently in line to make the NCAA Tournament by an average of 27.9 points and two games to Villanova by an average of 30.5 points.

Villanova should absolutely thrash DePaul and put the Blue Demons out of their misery.

I mentioned in my Big East Tournament preview that Villanova could own a huge halftime lead, opening up the possibility of a live bet on DePaul on the second-half spread. Villanova would potentially be turning its eyes to a pivotal do-or-die game for the Wildcats’ bubble dreams in tomorrow’s quarterfinal versus Marquette.

That’s getting a little cute and requires the right opportunity, but there’s nothing cute about expecting Villanova to bulldoze DePaul’s terrible defense. Big East opponents averaged 86.9 points against the Blue Demons, and the Wildcats scored 84 and 94 points in two games against DePaul.

Even if Villanova takes its foot off the gas and plays its reserves in the second half to save the starters’ legs for this week, there’s no reason to believe DePaul would have a chance to slow the Cats down.

After all, the Blue Demons allowed 79-plus points in 16-of-20 conference games.

Pick: Villanova Team Total Over 79.5

By Doug Ziefel

Cal big man Fardaws Aimaq is set to have a monster performance tonight against the Stanford Cardinal in the opening round of the Pac-12 Tournament.

Aimaq has been a vacuum for missed shots this season, averaging 11 rebounds per game on the season. However, tonight, he should well outperform his average, as Stanford will offer little resistance.

Aimaq is best at cleaning up misses from the opposition, ranking 25th in the country in defensive rebounding rate. Add in the fact that Stanford ranking 343rd in offensive rebounding rate, and he may get this done on the defensive end alone.

Aside from the matchup, we have plenty of data that shows this total is too low for Aimaq. He has gone over this number 61% of the time this season.

That hit rate gives us implied odds of -156 that he'll go over again tonight. However, it doesn't stop there. He's been even better of late, averaging 12.2 rebounds per game over his last 10.

So, back Aimaq to put the Bears on his back and grab every miss he can tonight.

Pick: Fardaws Aimaq Over 10.5 Rebounds (-115 · Play to -140)

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By Brett Pund

In the nightcap at the Conference USA Tournament, I’m looking to fade this Middle Tennessee team that might be the worst in the league. I believe the best route to do so is in the first half.

Starting first with the Blue Raiders, they trailed at halftime in seven of their eight road games in CUSA play. The average deficit in those games was 7.57 points per game.

To make matters worse, MTSU ranks 316th in the country in first-half scoring. That’s bad news against a Bulldog defense that’s top-20 in scoring defense in the opening period.

Meanwhile, LA Tech also ranks 48th in the nation in average first-half margin at +4.3. The Bulldogs were winning at the break in five of their eight road games in conference play as well.

The other key reason behind this play is just how bad Middle Tennessee has been away from home. According to BartTorvik, the Blue Raiders were either last or second-to-last in C-USA play on offense and defense in adjusted efficiency and points per possession.

With MTSU also being BartTorvik’s lowest-rated road team in the conference, I really like the Bulldogs to get off to a great start here.

Pick: LA Tech 1H -5 (Play to -6)

By Ky McKeon

Iona passed the torch this year in the MAAC, no longer the dominant force it once was. At 10-10, the Gaels finished with their worst league mark since 2020 and second-worst since all the way back in 2009.

Injuries haven’t been kind to Tobin Anderson and Co., and their best player, Greg Gordon, left the program back in mid-February. Since Gordon left, the Gaels are 3-5 straight up and 1-7 against the spread.

Fairfield has trended in the opposite direction, zooming up the standings to finish second in the MAAC and notching its highest conference win total since Ed Cooley coached the Stags back in 2011.

And while Iona lost its most talented player, Fairfield added former Seton Hall transfer Alexis Yetna to its frontcourt rotation.

Iona swept the season series, but Gordon played — and excelled — in both of those games, and Yetna wasn’t around.
These are different teams, and Fairfield has firmly established itself as the best offensive squad in the MAAC.

The Stags attempt the highest rate of 3s and make the highest percentage of 3s in the MAAC. That’s bad news for an Iona team that hasn’t defended the arc well this year.

Fairfield can also handle the ball with its stable of guards, key against the full-court pressure Iona will throw at it. And Yetna? He should dominate a soft Iona middle that’s been the worst 2-point defense in the MAAC this season.

Iona simply lacks firepower without Gordon. The Gaels still have some talent on the roster, they can handle the rock and shoot a bit, but they fall way short of Fairfield’s ability on the other end.

Plus, the inability to bother the Stags with pressure really limits their ceiling.

Fairfield punches back and avenges its two prior losses.

Pick: Fairfield -3.5 (Play to -4)

By Sean Paul

It’s time for the Big West Tournament in Vegas. I’m here to tell you why the UC Riverside Highlanders fit the perfect bet on the first day of the Big West Tourney.

Mike Magpayo’s squad dealt with some ups and downs this year, but it’s won seven of its past nine games.

During that stretch, freshman duo Barrington Hargress and Kaleb Smith have developed into the future of UCR’s program. Smith is coming off a 28-point outing against UCSB, and Hargress leads the team in scoring.

The biggest edge? Shooting from deep. Bakersfield attempts 3s on only 25% of its shot attempts. That’s one of the lowest marks in the sport.

On the other end, the Highlanders offense lives and dies by the 3-point shot. If Riverside hits enough 3s, it’ll be tough for the Roadrunners to claw back given their slow-pace and lack of shooting.

I’m rolling with the hot team that has the right style to take advantage of Bakersfield’s shooting woes.

We’re talking about a team that beat UC Irvine last month. The Highlanders can beat anybody in the Big West on the right night, and they’ve proven it.

Pick: UC Riverside -2 (Play to -3.5)

By Sean Paul

I’m all in on Utah Valley against Cal Baptist in the first round of the WAC Tournament.

Early on, CBU looked like a real contender in the WAC. The primary reason for the surge is strong scoring from Dominique Daniels Jr., who hasn’t played in the past seven games. CBU has gone 2-5 during that stretch.

The team is totally different without Daniels. It puts more on Blondeau Tchoukuiegno’s plate and limits the offensive potency.

Todd Phillips has Utah Valley humming at the ideal time. The Wolverines have won seven of their past eight games thanks to the 64th-best defense in America, according to KenPom. Opponents shoot only 47% from 2-point range (top-60 nationally) and 32% from 3 (top-80).

The Wolverines’ dominant defense should contain a scuffling CBU offense that’s without its only trustworthy shot-creator.

It’ll be a low-scoring struggle, but back Utah Valley in this first-round matchup.

Pick: Utah Valley -4.5 or Better

By Patrick Strollo

The No. 8 seed Alabama State Hornets will face the No. 1 seed Grambling State Tigers in the SWAC Tournament this evening in Birmingham.

This will be the third meeting between the two programs this year, with the series evenly split after both teams walked away with victories on their home courts.

Even though this is a battle between a top seed and a bottom seed, I think the value resides with the last team in. These two programs just met March 9 in a game that had to go to double-overtime before Alabama State pulled it off.

The Hornets will look to their stingy defense as a mitigant against the Tigers offense. I think the differentiator will be turnovers and believe Alabama State is well-positioned to capitalize on the turnover issues Grambling State has had this season.

Generating offense is important for Alabama State, but it has a strong statistical advantage on the boards, especially the offensive glass. The Hornets are the third-best offensive rebounding team in the SWAC and match cup well in the paint with the Tigers.

On a neutral court, my model has this game as a pick'em. Given the familiarity between the two programs, I think taking the points is the play here, and I would take Alabama State at +1 or better.

Pick: Alabama State +2.5 (Play to +1)

By Charlie DiSturco

When this line opened up, my gut immediately went, “Oh no, you’re going to do it aren’t you?”

Missouri has not won a game in SEC play. The Tigers have lost 18 straight, falling apart after a near-overtime win against South Carolina in mid-January. But down the stretch, Mizzou has quietly been playing better.

For a lot of these players, it’s their last opportunity to play college basketball — and ending the season on a high note will surely be a motivation here. Dating back to Dec. 9, Missouri has won just one of its 22 games after starting the year 7-2.

But this is a matchup worth taking the underdog in. Missouri struggles to limit second-chance opportunities, and its defensive aggression — which leads to steals but often results in a high foul rate — could actually work to a bonus here.

Georgia doen’t rebound the ball well, and its defense is notably soft, especially on the interior. Despite a size advantage, UGA ranks outside the top 200 on finishes at the rim — an area Mizzou attacks on nearly 40% of possessions.

This is a high-variance game with both teams shooting nearly 40% of all attempts from the perimeter. Both teams, however, rank outside the top 200 in 3-point percentage. This game is going to be won inside, and I expect Missouri’s veteran experience to provide an edge here.

In a game that I see as a coin-flip, I side with taking the points in Missouri. The Tigers rank 21st in Division I experience and have been on the bad side of luck in any close game. In two-possession games, Mizzou is 1-6.

Earlier this season, Georgia shot lights-out from 3 (42.9% on 28 attempts) in a road win at Mizzou Arena. I expect the Tigers to come motivated here and win their first SEC game this season. How’s that for drama?

Pick: Missouri +2.5 (Play to +2)

By Greg Waddell

Motivation is often the most important thing during conference tournament week.

While every game in the regular season matters, that just is not the case during conference tournament week. Some teams that have already locked up bids to the NCAA Tournament will shut things down as needed.

That’s what we’re seeing with Kansas, and it’s playing out in real time.

With the news that both Kevin McCullar and Hunter Dickinson will not play this week and will instead try to get healthy before the Big Dance, Kansas is left short-handed without much intention of making a deep run this week.
Between them, they combine for 36 points, 16 rebounds, six assists and 66 minutes played per game.

That screams trouble for a Kansas team that ranks 332nd in the country in bench minutes — and that’s when its two stars are available.

Bill Self has no serious intent to win this game and hang around this week. His only goal is to get his stars healthy and return home without any additional injuries to key Jayhawks.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, is playing to keep its season alive. It’s currently projected out of the field, but a win over Kansas would give it an opportunity to face Baylor. Suddenly, things could turn for the better.

Cincy gave Kansas a scare at Allen Fieldhouse earlier this year, losing by just five with McCullar and Dickinson both playing starring roles.

The Bearcats should roll here.

Pick: Cincinnati -2.5 (Play to -3)

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