Georgetown vs Providence Odds, Pick: How to Bet Cooley’s Return

Below, we have Georgetown vs. Providence odds and a pick for Saturday, Jan. 27.

When Ed Cooley announced he was leaving Providence to join Georgetown, all eyes turned to Big East schedule makers for the Hoyas road trip to Providence. Students are back on campus now, and Amica Mutual Pavilion will surely be one of the most hostile environments in college basketball as Cooley's Hoyas come to town.

Cooley's decision to leave for a conference foe and silently work the move before the end of the season last year didn't sit well with many Providence fans, and this has now become one of the most important games of the Providence conference schedule.

Georgetown has covered three of the last four games as big underdogs in conference play, but the first season under Cooley hasn't gone as he planned. The Hoyas enter this game 1-7 in Big East play, with the only win coming at home against DePaul by three points. The entire league has at least four conference wins, with Georgetown and DePaul in the basement with one and zero, respectively.

Even though Providence has a colossal road matchup looming with actual rival UConn on Wednesday, the spread is too short for this max motivation home game for the Friars defending home court.

Georgetown started the season red hot from 3. But the Hoyas have failed to maintain those numbers as they've faced stiffer competition and some of their top shooters regressed toward their career averages.

The Hoyas take and make a lot of 3s per game and are a plus offensive rebounding unit, but that's a tough matchup when facing this elite Providence defense. The Friars are elite at getting out on shooters, going over on screens and preventing good 3-point opportunities.

The Hoyas aren't all that comfortable at shot-making in the mid-range, which is a must if you want to beat Providence's drop coverage defense. Georgetown is outside the top 200 nationally in both mid-range attempt rate and field goal percentage on those scoring opportunities, per Haslametrics.

Georgetown ranks sixth nationally in points per second chance opportunity. It now faces a Friar defense in the top 75 in preventing second chances and in the upper third of the Big East in defensive rebounding rate.

Georgetown also gets to the free throw line at an above-average clip in league play. As a considerable underdog, free points from the line can be vital to staying in touch and preventing scoring runs. In a hostile environment against a defense that doesn't foul, it's hard to imagine Georgetown sustaining consistent offense without red-hot 3-point shooting.

Given how Providence guards ball screens, there will be a lot of pressure on Georgetown's shotmaking. The Hoyas rank 263rd nationally in Shot Selection and 162nd in Shot Making, per ShotQuality. It's an ugly matchup for the Georgetown offense, and the Friars have the motivation to run up the score and stay locked in defensively here.

Even though the Friars lost Bryce Hopkins for the season, there have been encouraging signs for Providence in year one under new head coach Kim English.

The defensive metrics are legitimately elite, and the team has embraced a rim-and-3 approach on offense. The Friars force teams to shoot low-efficiency mid-range jumpers on offense against them, and they take almost all of their 2-point field goals on offense at the rim.

Providence's offense ranks in the bottom 20 nationally in mid-range attempt rate, and the Hoyas' total lack of rim protection should leave plenty of opportunities for Providence to create margin offensively.

The Friars had issues in transition defense under Cooley in the past, but they rank inside the top 50 defending in transition this year.

The Friars don't do a ton well offensively, but they can finish inside around the rim. Georgetown's defense is in the bottom 30 nationally at defending near-proximity shot attempts, and Big East opponents are shooting 60.1% against the Hoyas on 2-point field goals.

The Friars take a lot of 3s and aren't particularly efficient at making them, but the Hoyas' defensive rebounding woes could create more second-chance looks than Providence usually gets offensively. The offense without Hopkins lacks an elite offensive rebounding presence, and that's where his absence has hurt the most.

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KenPom, BartTorvik and Haslametrics all have this spread closer to 14, where I'd have expected the market to open. F

FanDuel and DraftKings opened at 11.5 and 12.5, respectively, and given the motivation for Providence to beat their old coach and the Friars' general dominance of home court in the last few years, the opening market isn't respecting Providence enough.

I'd bet the Friars at -13 or better on Saturday.

Pick: Providence -11.5 (Play to -13)

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