IUPUI vs Green Bay Odds, Pick for Thursday

Is there anything more exhilarating than early afternoon college basketball on weekdays? I'd say not.

Thursday's game is the IUPUI Jaguars against the Green Bay Phoenix in the Horizon League.

IUPUI is, once again, ranked near the bottom of the national KenPom rankings, sitting at 360th. Only two teams in the sport rank worse than the Jags — although, I think IUPUI is vastly better than Detroit Mercy, which played a tight-knit game against Green Bay last week.

The Jags don't do anything particularly well. The offense is bad (346th in Offensive Efficiency), and the defensive is even worse (354th in Defensive Efficiency). While IUPUI forces turnovers 18% of the time, that's the only positive thing the defense does.

One of IUPUI's main areas of struggle is defending the perimeter — it's allowing 3s on 37% of perimeter shots. That could prove problematic against the 3-point-reliant Green Bay offense.

IUPUI's offense runs through a trio of guards, Jlynn Counter, Bryce Monroe and Vincent Brady. The 6-foot-5 Counter is the only efficient scorer of the bunch, connecting on 47% of his shots and 37% from 3. He scored 18 points in the Jags' huge road upset over Purdue Fort Wayne a few weeks ago.

Counter will have to score it often if IUPUI is to compete against the vastly superior Phoenix.

The metrics still seem weary on Green Bay's legitimacy, as it ranks sixth in KenPom's AdjEm among Horizon League teams. I'm a metrics guy — as everyone who reads my previews know by now — but at what point do we agree that Green Bay isn't some flash in the pan?

First-year head coach Sundance Wicks has Green Bay functioning as one of the top teams in the Horizon.

It feels legitimate. Just look at Green Bay's caliber of wins — two over Wright State, one over Cleveland State and one over Oakland. The only two conference losses for Green Bay came in tough road showdowns against Oakland and Northern Kentucky.

Thankfully for the Phoenix faithful, this one isn't on the road.

Wicks used his prior relationship with Noah Reynolds at Wyoming to bring the guard to Green Bay, and it's entirely changed the program's trajectory.

Reynolds is the runaway favorite for Horizon Player of the Year, averaging 19 points and five assists per contest. The junior guard has scored 30+ points four separate times in conference play.

Scoring is one of the many things Reynolds does well, though. He's a more than willing passer, as he gets into the lane and kicks to knockdown shooters like David Douglas Jr., Marcus Hall and Foster Wonders.

The Phoenix play slow and shoot a ton of 3s. They rank 352nd in Adjusted Tempo and attempt triples on 48% of their field goal attempts. Green Bay's offense could struggle if the 3s aren't falling due to its slow tempo and the volume of outside shots.

Yes, I'm doing it again. Will I look foolish once again? Perhaps. But Green Bay doesn't regularly blow teams out, despite being a solid Horizon squad.

I mean, Detroit Mercy — which hasn't won a single game all season — kept the game within single digits for 98% of Saturday's game.

In the first meeting against Green Bay in January, IUPUI scored 1.02 points per possession and led by 10 early in the contest. While the lead disintegrated quickly, the Jaguars stayed competitive throughout the game before failing to cover the 8.5-point spread at home.

The Jags need to just keep the game somewhat close and not get completely blown out. It's not that hard, right?

Pick: IUPUI +12.5