NC State vs Clemson Odds, Pick: Wolfpack to Keep it Close

The Clemson Tigers are riding a three-game winning streak and are set to the NC State Wolfpack on Saturday.

Here's NC State vs. Clemson odds and a pick.

NC State isn't making the NCAA tournament unless a miracle occurs in the ACC Tournament. At this point, Kevin Keatts is hoping his team can play spoiler, while making a run for the NIT. The season hasn’t gone as planned for the Wolfpack, and it’s easy see why.

NC State’s offense isn’t an exciting one. It plays a relatively quick tempo (116th), but has the 216th-best effective field goal percentage in college basketball. Limiting turnovers is one of the best aspects of NC State's offense as the Wolfpack lose the ball on just 13% of their possessions (fifth nationally.)

DJ Horne is on an absolute heater and has scored 24 or more points in four straight games. On the season, Horne is shooting over 42% from 3. However, he's the only NC State player shooting over 35% from 3, which shows just how much this offense has struggled.

If NC State is to compete on the road, it'll need more from either (or both) Casey Morsell or Jayden Taylor. Both have shoot the ball well in the past, but are right around 30% from 3 this season.

Defensively, the Wolfpack rank 57th in defensive efficiency. NC State forces turnover 19% of the time, but that won't come easy against Clemson as the Tigers turn the ball over on just 15% of their possessions.

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Clemson started the year 11-1 and looked like one of the best teams in college basketball. However, a rough stretch dropped the Tigers to 13-6 and losses in four of five games put the Tigers' NCAA Tournament hopes in serious jeopardy. Then, the Tigers magically won at North Carolina and parlayed that win into two more against Syracuse and Miami.

During that stretch, Clemson limited all three opponents to 1.04 points or fewer per possession and held two of the three teams to less than 1.00 PPP. If Clemson's defense can post similar numbers for the rest of the year, I could see the Tigers being a top-tier team.

Clemson also boasts one of the better offenses in the ACC and ranks 27th in offensive efficiency. The Tigers have a trustworthy inside-out scoring attack that's led by PJ Hall and Ian Schiefelin inside. Hall averages 19 points and seven rebounds per contest, and demands the attention of multiple defenders.

Shooting is a huge part of Clemson's attack as 39% the Tigers' field goals are 3s and they connect on 35% of those shots from deep. Of course, those strong shooting numbers wouldn't look the same without Joseph Girard III.

Girard has caught fire in this three-game winning streak, scoring 18 or more points in each game. The veteran guard, who spent four years at Syracuse before transferring to Clemson, is having a career-year and shooting 42% from 3.

I don't love NC State because of its serious offensive flaws, but its defense usually keeps games close. Clemson coach Brad Brownell also wants a slower-paced game, which favors NC State's chances of covering. I'll roll with the road team and bet NC State to keep it close.

Pick: NC State +7.5 (Play to +7)