Providence vs Georgetown Odds, Pick & Prediction

Providence duels with Georgetown on Tuesday, March 5 at 7 p.m. ET on FS1. Here's Providence vs Georgetown odds, pick and prediction.

It’s been a wild ride for Providence in Kim English’s first year.

The Friars won 11 of their first 13 games before losing superstar forward Bryce Hopkins to a season-ending injury. They lost four straight conference games directly after.

But they adjusted, playing more through Josh Oduro in the post and Devin Carter on the perimeter. Providence won seven of 10 between mid-January and mid-Febrauary.

But the Friars have lost back-to-back games and sit firmly on the bubble.

A win over 9-20 Georgetown might not move the needle, but a dominant one could.

With Hopkins in the fold, Providence was an isolation-and-post-heavy offense. The versatile forward leveraged his deep bag to score at will in the low-block, paint and mid-range.

However, without Hopkins, Coach English has adjusted.

Oduro is an interior force, scoring 1.01 post-up PPP (80th percentile) and 1.23 roll-man PPP (92nd percentile), so English has started emphasizing dishing the ball to Oduro near the rim and letting him work. He’s responded with seven 20-point games since Hopkins’ injury.

With Oduro pulling defenses toward the interior, Coach English has started leveraging Carter’s ball-handling and shooting on the perimeter through on- and off-ball screens. He’s shooting 39% from 3 while dishing out nearly four assists per game. He’s responded by averaging over 20 points per game without Hopkins.

But Providence is still a defense-first squad. The Friars’ switch-everything half-court ball-pressure defense is brutal to face because they’re so physical, athletic and versatile one through five.

That said, the Friars are vulnerable against ball-screen sets, so Marquette cooked them. And the Friars' secondary defense – specifically against off-ball screens and DHO sets – has regressed without Hopkins, so Villanova cooked them.

The Hoyas have two Big East wins this year, both against DePaul.

They’re getting outscored 82-68 in losses. They’re now 12-17 ATS on the year.

Offensively, Georgetown runs a flex-motion offense utilizing secondary actions to find favorable isolation matchups while crashing the offensive boards. But the Hoyas rank well below the D-I average in off-ball screen PPP (.84, 32nd percentile), and while they generate a high volume of second-chance points (13 per game, third in Big East), they don’t do so efficiently (1.07 PPP, 39th percentile).

Defensively, the Hoyas allow far too many open shots, ranking seventh in the Big East in 3-point rate allowed and 11th in Open 3 Rate allowed. Only three D-I squads allow more spot-up PPP than Georgetown’s 1.08 (American, Detroit, Saint Louis).

Unfortunately, this isn’t the result of a compact, rim-denial defense. The Hoyas allow 35 paint points per game, second-to-last in the Big East, mostly by flailing against cutters (1.34 PPP allowed, fourth percentile) and posters (.93 PPP allowed, 22nd percentile).

The lone bright spot has been Jayden Epps, as the Illinois transfer has played relatively solid ball, averaging 18 points and four assists per game. At the minimum, he’s passed the eye test.

But he still has turnover issues (3.4 per game) and only shoots 30% from deep.

The must-have app for college basketball bettors

The best NCAAB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

I love the Friars here.

They should be fired up in a must-win bounce-back spot off two losses against KenPom top-25 teams, and I expect a step-down in competition will work wonders.

Not to mention, they're playing against their former coach. Surely the Friars will be motivated to sweep Cooley in his first season since switching sides.

From a schematic perspective, Georgetown doesn’t have the muscle to match up with Oduro in the paint, and Carter should launch and make open 3s all night.

Meanwhile, the Hoyas won’t generate favorable secondary switches against Providence’s switch-everything, isolation-funneling defense. In fact, the Friars’ scheme is the perfect antidote to Ed Cooley’s flex motion offense.

Providence is known for its monstrous home-court advantage, as the Friars are sometimes unbeatable at The Dunk. But, very quietly, they’re 7-3 ATS on the road this season, which includes an outright win over Seton Hall.

Expect more of the same on Tuesday and wager accordingly.

Pick: Providence -7.5 (Play to -8)

ESPN Bet is now live! Make sure you're ready for all the action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.