VCU vs Dayton Odds, Pick for Friday

Two of the most popular preseason picks to win the Atlantic 10 conference will ultimately fall short. As Richmond and Loyola Chicago have emerged as surprise leaders in the A10, Dayton and VCU have had relatively disappointing conference seasons.

Dayton seems to be safely within the at-large bubble at the moment, but a home loss in a mid-major conference could have major negative implications for the Flyers.

In coach Ryan Odom's inaugural season at the helm, VCU has been fairly inconsistent. The roster naturally was overhauled after the offseason coaching change, which likely has played a role in the Rams' inconsistency. The one consistency, strangely, has been the playing style of last year's VCU team and Odom's team this season.

The defensive identity VCU showcased under Mike Rhoades has carried on in Odom's first year. That continuation was not necessarily expected given Odom led teams that were much more offensively focused while at Utah State.

Recently, VCU has struggled to generate offensive production in the process of losing three of its last five games. Particularly concerning were its losses to UMass and Duquesne, with the Rams failing to break 60 points in either game.

The most recent loss to Duquesne on Tuesday night at home has a potential explanation. Max Shulga — who followed Odom from Utah State to VCU and leads the team in scoring — missed the game with back spasms.

Shulga has been battling issues with his back for a few weeks now, yet was not forced to miss any game action until Tuesday. His status for this contest against Dayton will be crucial to VCU's hopes to keep pace with the A10's highest rated team, according to KenPom. With the A10 conference tournament just around the corner, it wouldn't be surprising to see Odom hold Shulga out of VCU's final regular season game.

Mid-major programs typically have the deck stacked against them in terms of postseason awards. The media simply doesn't bother to shine the same amount of light on the lesser-known programs, even when it comes to a team like Dayton that has separated itself with consistent success at the mid-major level. Nonetheless, those who follow the sport know that Dayton's DaRon Holmes II has a strong argument to be a first-team All-American.

In today's college basketball landscape, Holmes is a throwback. He has dominated the A10 by being a reliable post option. Many of today's offenses are heavily reliant on transition scoring or 3-point shooting to score efficiently, but Dayton simply dumps it to Holmes in the post and clears out, allowing the certain A10 Player of the Year to reach into his repertoire to find an avenue to score.

The Flyers are encouraged by their coach Anthony Grant to provide Holmes sufficient spacing. Naturally, teams often double-team Holmes in the post to prevent him from being the option that beats them on a given night. In those situations, Holmes is more than willing to pass to the open teammate, averaging almost three assists per game to accompany his 20.1 points per game.

VCU is not equipped with the size necessary to combat Dayton's strength inside. The Rams will likely need to trap the post and force Holmes to find other scoring options. Grant won't mind utilizing Holmes as a passer, trusting he will find one of the five Flyers who are shooting 35% or better from 3-point range to knock down an open look.

Dayton's sole focus for this game and next week will be solidifying its NCAA Tournament resume. At this point, the only thing that could keep the Flyers out of the field would be an ugly home loss to VCU coupled with an early-round loss in next week's A10 Tournament.

VCU's injury uncertainty is enough to convince me Dayton is the right side Friday night. I expect this spread to widen further beyond the opening line in Dayton's direction as it gets closer to tip. If so, consider taking the Flyers on the first half line to mitigate the potential big number at the close.

Pick: Dayton -8.5 (Bet to -11) | Or Dayton 1H (Bet to -6.5)