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Projections are smoking college basketball totals.
Data-driven models supplied by the legendary Tanner McGrath are wasting zero time beating the market. Over/under picks started a molten-hot 76-47 (61.8%) through the first 10 days.
Lines for Thursday, meanwhile, are locked and loaded — and the board is hanging big edges:
- UMKC vs. George Mason
- Coppin State vs. Bradley
- Mercyhurst vs. Penn State
- MD-East Shore vs. Rhode Island
Spoiler: One of these over/unders is 6+ points off the projected total, earning an A+ grade.
Action starts at 3 p.m. ET, so let's analyze the smartest college basketball predictions today.
Best Action PRO College Basketball Model Picks (11/12)
McGrath’s model projections are built on adjusted efficiency and pace metrics, much like KenPom or BartTorvik, but he takes it further by: A) incorporating shot-quality-type metrics to account for possible shooting regression, and B) scaling underlying numbers to align closer with the betting market, making it more accurate in that context and easier to identify inefficient lines.
UMKC vs. George Mason, 3 p.m. ET
Yesterday, projections loved the UMKC over, which ended in a high-scoring game.
Today, PRO
