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Thursday’s slate is light on star power, but still set to pack a punch.
We at Action Network are back at it, hunting for the top spots and picks of the day for Thursday.
Read below for college basketball best bets, including three NCAAB picks for Thursday, November 12.
Be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis!
3 College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3 p.m | |
  | 7 p.m | |
  | 8 p.m | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Kansas City vs. George Mason
By: Colby Marchio
George Mason will have nearly a week to rest before this matchup, while Kansas City will be playing its third game in four days. The Roos played at Jacksonville on Monday, losing 79-61. On Wednesday afternoon, they faced Florida A&M, a team that likes to run just as much as they do, with both teams ranked inside the top 105.
The Roos won, completely blowing the doors off the Rattlers and securing their first win since taking down Southern Illinois (they were up by almost 30 at the time of this write-up).
Then comes George Mason, which will suffocate Kansas City defensively while playing at a mall-walker's pace.
It's George Mason or nothing here for me. Sure, the rest-versus-rust argument comes into play, but three games in four days is a lot of early-season miles. Give me the Patriots.
Pick: George Mason -15.5 (Play to -20)
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Maryland Eastern Shore vs. Rhode Island
The top-graded play on the board is the under in Maryland-Eastern Shore vs. Rhode Island. PRO projects this one for just 137.15 total points, more than six points below the posted 143.5. That gap earns it an A+ edge rating.
The projections come from Tanner McGrath’s data-driven models, which have beaten the market early this season. His over/under picks opened 76-47 (61.8%) through the first 10 days.
McGrath’s model starts with adjusted efficiency and pace metrics, similar to KenPom or BartTorvik, and then adds two things. It folds in shot-quality metrics to account for likely shooting regression. It also scales the underlying numbers to sit closer to the betting market, which makes the projections more accurate in that context and makes mispriced lines easier to spot.
Here, the model sees a slower, lower-scoring game than the market is pricing. That’s enough to back the under at 143.5.
Pick: Under 143.5
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Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M
By: Sean Paul
The total is about as high as you'll see in college basketball, sitting at 177.5. It's fair since both teams are top-15 in adjusted tempo.
I'm rolling with the over here. The two teams are plenty comfortable playing in the 90-point range, and if one of them cracks 100, it wouldn't shock me.
KenPom has Texas A&M and Oklahoma State sitting in the top 40 in defensive efficiency, and I'm not sure I buy that. The Aggies should have a solid defense, but they lack a shot-stopper if the Oklahoma State guards beat the press.
I also don't see the vision of Oklahoma State being even a top-50 defense. Some of the pieces, like Grbovic and Burks, aren't the caliber of defenders that should help the Cowboys' defense be top-40 level.
Give me the over. I expect a lot of 3s and possessions.
Pick: Over 178.5 (Play to 179.5)
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