Davidson vs Dayton Odds, Pick for Tuesday

The Dayton Flyers had a few hiccups recently but will try getting on track at home against the Davidson Wildcats.

Matt McKillop is the son of legendary Davidson coach Bob McKillop, but he's doing things differently. The younger McKillop is using a stronger defense — the Wildcats have their highest defensive efficiency since 2009.

Bob focused more on offense, and it led Davidson to some awesome moments for the program.

I’m sure Matt isn’t pleased with the 155th-most efficient offense in the sport, but playing strong defense is worthy of an applause.

The biggest struggle for Davidson’s offense is shooting, which has been a staple of its team over the years. The Wildcats still attempt 3s 40% of the time, but it’s shooting 30% on those attempts.

Plus, leading scorer David Skogman is done for the season, which erased another shooter from the lineup.

Three of the five current starters shoot below 30% from 3, and only freshman Bobby Durkin and now leading scorer Connor Kochera shoot above 35% from downtown.

The team lacks explosiveness and shot creation from the guard spots, so it's nearly impossible for Davidson to shoot the ball well with its roster layout.

Davidson makes games ugly and did so against Richmond twice (losing two close ones). The top-echelon Atlantic 10 squads haven’t dominated Davidson, but it needs an ugly game to compete.

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While Davidson is no longer the class of the A-10, Dayton certainly is. The Flyers will reach the NCAA tournament this season and achieve a fifth or sixth seed in the process. That doesn’t come easily in the A-10, so it’s worth tipping the cap to Anthony Grant for his outstanding work with the program.

I could easily see Dayton finding an exploit for Davidson’s usually excellent defense. The Flyers shoot 39% from 3 and 44% of their shots come from downtown. Meanwhile, Davidson opponents shoot 3s on 42% of their field goals.

If the smaller Wildcats struggle stopping DaRon Holmes II (everyone does anyway), then it could double the All-American big and he’ll find shooters for open 3s all game.

Nate Santos and Koby Brea help the elite shooting attack (over 40% from downtown).

But perhaps the best development in the shooting department is Holmes becoming a really good outside marksman. That was Holmes’ next step to becoming an NBA player, and he’s hitting 36% from deep on 69 attempts this season.

Do you want a full-on idea of how good Holmes is? KenPom labels him as the second-best player in college hoops behind only Zach Edey. He’s averaging 20 points and 7.9 rebounds per game and he's already secured A-10 Player of the Year.

Sure, he won’t win the National Player of the Year award like Obi Toppin, but he might be better.

The Flyers cruised to a 72-59 victory earlier this year against Davidson in North Carolina.

I can't see things seismically changing in this one.

Dayton is the better team at home, with a clear attack for the strong part of Davidson's scheme — defense.

I'm rolling with the Flyers here.

Pick: Dayton -9.5 (Play to -10.5)