Conference tournaments are underway in March, and I've got a game circled in the Summit League tournament as one of my NCAAB best bets.
Otherwise, I'm looking toward the Big Ten and Big 12 regular season for more betting value.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Wednesday, March 4.
College Basketball Picks — 3/4
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 PM | |
  | 8 PM | |
  | 9 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Ohio State vs. Penn State Pick
Ohio State and Jake Diebler can’t have nice things, can they?
After the Buckeyes notched a massive win over Purdue on Sunday, they were in good shape for an NCAA Tournament bid.
Unfortunately, have a tough sandwich spot here, heading to the forgotten lands of the Big Ten ahead of hosting Indiana on Saturday in an enormous bubble clash.
Penn State is coming off a big win of its own, having taken down Iowa on Saturday in Happy Valley.
The Nittany Lions lack size and effective defenders, but they have some talented guards and can score with the middle of the Big Ten.
Penn State has gotten some rotational consistency lately, using the same starting lineup for six consecutive games. That is the longest stretch with the same group of their entire season, with Mike Rhoades on his 11th starting combination.
Kayden Mingo, Freddie Dilione V, and Dominick Stewart have meshed well as a playmaking/scoring trio, while Josh Reed has been excellent as a stretch four.
Ohio State’s defense is vulnerable, and the Nittany Lions have the scorers to offset the brilliance of Bruce Thornton.
The fear is that Ohio State’s offense ruthlessly batters the Big Ten’s worst defense. But in the first meeting, Penn State’s offense hung around for a close 84-78 loss in Columbus.
I think Penn State’s potent backcourt and the challenging Ohio State spot will keep the Nittany Lions close — they could even win outright against the Jekyll-and-Hyde Buckeyes.
Pick: Penn State +6 or Better
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Kansas City vs. Oral Roberts Prediction
As I write this, the song Dead Man Walking by Jon Bellion came on shuffle.
That’s a perfect term for Kansas City basketball and its coach, Marvin Menzies, who will be relieved of his duties whenever the Roos’ season ends.
The school has already hired his replacement, Mark Turgeon, and the team certainly seems to be laboring through the motions to get to the finish line.
Kansas City has plummeted to 356th nationally in KenPom, the program's worst rating in history. The Roos are a nation-worst 5-22 (18.5%) against the spread this year, failing to cover by an average of 6.2 points per game.
That, folks, is a dead man walking.
Oral Roberts, on the other hand, is on the upswing with the talent to make a run in the Summit Tournament.
The Golden Eagles won four of their final six regular-season games after a brutal 13-game losing streak, and that included sweeping Kansas City. They blasted the Roos, 94-70, on the season’s final day.
Oral Roberts is led by four talented transfers with the upside to play up against Summit foes.
Ty Harper (Youngstown State) is a star scoring guard who appears fully healthy — he averaged 34.3 points per game over the season’s final three, all Eagle wins.
Ofri Naveh (West Virginia) and Yuto Yamanouchi-Williams (Portland) give the Golden Eagles a skilled frontcourt, while Connor Dow (Oklahoma State) is a skilled floor spacer who had 20 points in the season finale.
Oral Roberts closed as 3.5-point favorites at Kansas City. Laying 8.5 at a neutral site here is a bit steep on that logic, but based on the trajectory of both teams, I am willing to make that wager.
Pick: Oral Roberts -9 or Better
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Baylor vs. Houston Best Bet
Many observers bailed from the Cougars’ bandwagon after they lost three straight games in seven days in late February.
But I’m inclined to give them a break, considering it was one of the most difficult three-game stretches imaginable: at Iowa State, vs. Arizona, and at Kansas.
That faith paid off handsomely over the weekend, as Houston obliterated Colorado, 100-60, in the classic “get right” spot at home against an inferior foe. The Cougars’ backcourt looked significantly healthier after getting five days off, and they completely overwhelmed the overmatched Buffaloes physically.
They can do the same thing against Baylor, an opponent who consistently struggles with this kind of brute force (see: major struggles against Iowa State).
Houston is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread against the Bears since joining the Big 12, covering by an average of six points per game.
That includes a 77-55 win in Waco this year, as the Cougars thrashed Baylor and racked up one of the most stunning shot volume advantages in a game this season. Thanks to dominance in both the turnover and offensive rebounding departments, Houston attempted 74 field goals compared to Baylor’s 41. A 33-shot gap is staggering.
Now playing in Houston with the Cougars still smarting from that losing streak, I expect a focused Houston effort with trademark toughness leading the way.
Pick: Houston -17 or Better
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