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College Basketball Picks: Take This Double-Digit ‘Dog & More Saturday NCAAB Bets

College Basketball Picks: Take This Double-Digit ‘Dog & More Saturday NCAAB Bets article feature image
4 min read
Credit:

Wesley Hale-Imagn Images. Pictured: Aaron Fearne (Charlotte)

We have all 11 conference tournament finals covered here at Action Network on Saturday.

But there's also value elsewhere, in the college basketball leagues that aren't crowning a champion.

Read below for college basketball picks, including a double-digit underdog and more NCAAB best bets on Saturday, March 14.


College Basketball Picks

GameTime (ET)Pick
Cornell Big Red LogoYale Bulldogs Logo
11 a.m.
Wisconsin Badgers LogoMichigan Wolverines Logo
1 p.m.
Charlotte 49ers LogoSouth Florida Bulls Logo
3 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Cornell vs. Yale

Cornell Big Red Logo
Saturday, March 14
11 a.m. ET
ESPNU
Yale Bulldogs Logo
Yale -3.5
bet365 Logo

By Evan Abrams

The Ivy League Tournament gets started on Saturday with two semifinal matchups, including the opening game between Cornell and Yale at 11 a.m. ET.

The Bulldogs (23-5 overall, 11-3 in the Ivy) won the league by a game over Harvard behind Ivy League Player of the Year Nick Townsend.

Townsend is going to be a major problem for the Big Red, but that's not the main reason I'm backing the Bulldogs.

Instead, I'm focusing in on a Bet Labs Sports Insights system called "Good Team, Conference Small Favorite, Both Teams Bad ATS" that likes the Bulldogs to advance to the final while covering the spread in the process.

Since its inception in 2005, this system is 2256-2040-71 for a 52.5% hit rate, which correlates to a 1.4% return on investment.

NCAAB Icon
Evan Abrams – Good Tm, Conf, Sm Fav, Both Tms Bad ATS
the game is played during the Postseason or Regular season
the team's win percentage is between 55% and 100%
the team's ATS win % is between 0% and 50%
the opposing team's ATS win % is between 0% and 50%
the spread is between -9.5 and -1
the game is a Conference game
$6,184
WON
2256-2040-71
RECORD
53%
WIN%

The “Good Team, Conference, Small Favorite, Both Teams Bad ATS” system identifies undervalued favorites in the sport who win consistently but have struggled against the spread, facing opponents with similar ATS struggles.

In conference play, where matchups are familiar and motivation runs high, the better overall team often prevails despite market skepticism caused by prior spread losses.

When a strong team sits as a small favorite, it suggests the line has tightened due to mutual ATS underperformance rather than true competitive balance.

This system capitalizes on that overcorrection, backing reliable programs that win outright at a steady rate when the market perception has dipped too far, turning short favorites into profitable plays.

Pick: Yale -3.5


Wisconsin vs. Michigan

Wisconsin Badgers Logo
Saturday, March 14
1 p.m. ET
CBS
Michigan Wolverines Logo
Michigan -12.5
bet365 Logo

By Sean Paul

Michigan is hunting for revenge against Wisconsin — the only Big Ten team to beat it in league play.

The path to revenge is all about shooting. Wisconsin went 15-of-33 from deep in its stunning win in Ann Arbor, and Michigan went 8-of-25. For top-25-ish teams to beat a top-five team, you have to get really hot from beyond the arc, which is exactly what the Badgers did in that game.

Most of the Badgers' offensive production comes from their guards, Nick Boyd and John Blackwell. The pair combined for 48 of Wisconsin's 85 points in its win over Washington in the Big Ten Tournament and 69 of 91 in its most recent overtime win over Illinois.

Much of Wisconsin's offensive success stems from Boyd's dribble driving, which results in him finishing or dishing to shooters. The Badgers will want to shoot from 3-point range, attempting triples on 52% of their field goals while hitting 34% of them.

All five starters are shooting threats, but I'm not sure Wisconsin's interior can hang with Michigan's physical bigs. With Nolan Winter injured, the Badgers really only have Austin Rapp and Aleksas Bieliauskas.

Rapp plays the four at 6-foot-10, 238 pounds, and is limited outside of shooting. Bileliauskas is more physical than Rapp, but he tends to get in foul trouble.

In the first game of the tourney for Wisconsin, it allowed 20 offensive rebounds to a bigger, physical Washington squad.

If the Badgers struggled with Washington's bigs, they'll struggle against 7-foot-2 Aday Mara, Morez Johnson Jr. and Yaxel Lendeborg. Wisconsin will have to choose to play Mara one-on-one or give help and leave the shooters.

Shooting will be what determines if Michigan can cover the lofty 12.5-point spread or not. The Wolverines went 5-of-17 in the close quarterfinal battle against Ohio State, but that's an off game for them, as they're shooting over 40% from deep since Feb. 1.

Michigan will crush Wisconsin if it can approach the 40% number for the game.

I have full faith in Michigan's defense limiting Wisconsin. Boyd won't be able to drive as easily, and Lendeborg loves blocking 3-point shots.

I expect a fairly routine revenge win for Michigan.

Pick: Michigan -12.5 (Play to -13.5)


Charlotte vs. USF

Charlotte 49ers Logo
Saturday, March 14
3 p.m. ET
ESPN2
USF Bulls Logo
Charlotte +14.5
bet365 Logo

By Alex Kolodziej

USF won the American regular season title and is currently on a nine-game win streak heading into this semifinal duel against 17-16 Charlotte.

The Bulls haven't played yet in this event, while the 49ers have already played two games in two days.

Also, the Bulls pummeled the 49ers, 83-60, in their most recent meeting on March 8.

But that doesn't mean this spread should be this high. In fact, our Action PRO Projections think the number is three points too large, giving us a nice +3.6% edge in favor of the 'dog.

The top seed is likely to advance, but don't discount the 49ers keeping this one close.

Pick: Charlotte +14.5

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