Texas hosts Florida in a key bubble game in the SEC at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2 on Tuesday, February 25.
I've fired up my college basketball player prop projections, and I've found solid value on Florida's big man.
Texas vs Florida Player Prop
Rueben Chinyelu Under 12.5 Rebounds (-125)
This should be a tougher game for Rueben Chinyelu to grab rebounds with Texas coming into tonight's game ranked ninth in our schedule-adjusted rebounding metric.
In eight games against schedule-adjusted top-50 rebounding teams, Chinyelu has stayed under this number six times, with an average of 9.3 rebounds per game.
Those eight games consisted of four teams that rank better than Texas (No. 9) in schedule-adjusted rebounding, and four games against teams worse than Texas, so it's a pretty fair comparison.
Chinyelu also averaged 25.5 minutes per game in those contests, but I'm projecting him for 27.5, close to his ceiling of 28 minutes in those games.
Additionally, Texas does a couple of other things besides rebounding well that prevents overall rebounding opportunities.
First, the Longhorns play at a slower than average pace. Texas also shoots inside more than average and forces teams to shoot inside at a top-35 rate, which are higher percentage shots with a higher likelihood of going in.
Additionally, Texas gets to the line a ton, ranking second nationally in free-throw rate, where rebounds are harder to come by. The Longhorns also foul at a high rate, ranking 301st free-throw Rate, meaning again more fouls, more free-throw opportunities and fewer rebound chances.
The other concern for Chinyelu here is foul trouble itself. He'll be going up against Longhorns big Matas Vokietaitis, who ranks No. 2 nationally in free-throw rate, drawing 9.0 fouls per 40 minutes, which also ranks second.
While Florida ranks sixth nationally in two-foul participation, there's still a better than normal chance that Chinyelu runs into serious foul trouble, lowering his floor even more.
In 27.5 minutes, I'm projecting Chinyelu for 11.1 rebounds, and I believe he has a very strong chance of staying under 12.5 given the situation.
Pick: Rueben Chinyelu Under 12.5 Rebounds (-125 at bet365 | -130 BetMGM | -135 FanDuel)
