With NFL season winding down, I had some time to fire up our college basketball player props model for Friday's 8 p.m. ET clash between Texas and UConn.
I believe sportsbooks have a systematic error with a specific team's market on Friday, so I'll be attacking that angle.
So, read below for three college basketball player props and picks.
Texas vs. UConn Player Prop Picks
I'm betting on all three of the Longhorn assist unders, which include:
- Dailyn Swain Under 2.5 Assists (+110 at bet365 and BetMGM)
- Tramon Mark Under 1.5 Assists (-125 at bet365, -130 at BetMGM)
- Jordan Pope Under 1.5 Assists (+145 at bet365, +140 at BetMGM)
Texas has faced a cushy schedule for racking up assists, with just two games (Arizona State, Virginia) against opponents that allow a below average assist rate on made field goals.
Unfortunately for the Horns, they face a UConn Huskies team that allows an assist per made field goal at the 10th-lowest rate nationally.
The Huskies also present a number of other factors that will reduce assist chances.
First, the Huskies put other teams on the line at an above average rate, and of course you can't assist on free throw points.
Second, they shut down the opposition's shooting, allowing the ninth-lowest effective field goal percentage despite facing a top-50 schedule difficulty so far.
The Huskies also force an above average turnover rate, so more Texas possessions won't even end in a shot.
Add in a slow pace (322nd nationally), and it'll be difficult for Texas to put up points, and even more difficult for it to get assists on those points.
The Longhorns' implied team total is just 66 points, and they've been held under 75 points in just three games this season, with those three games averaging 66.7 points.
In those three games, Swain averaged 2.0 assists, Mark 1.6 and Pope 1.0 meaning two of the three players averaged under their current line.
However, those games also came against teams that allowed a 52.6% assist rate. UConn allows just a 40% assist rate.
Our NCAA basketball player prop projections have the following projections:
- Swain 2.33 assists, 58.7% chance to stay under 2.5 (11.1% edge at +110)
- Mark 1.30 assists, 62.7% chance to stay under 1.5 (7.1% edge at -125)
- Pope 1.77 assists, 47.2% chance to stay under 1.5 (6.4% edge at +145)
I'll play all three for a half-unit each.
