There are a bunch of mid-major conferences right in the middle of their conference tournaments. The first ticket will be punched on Saturday!
Let’s dive right in for a look at three mid-major games for my College Basketball Predictions for Thursday, March 5.
Manhattan vs Fairfield Picks
| Manhattan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 150.5 -105o / -115u | +195 |
| Fairfield Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 150.5 -105o / -115u | -238 |
The Manhattan Jaspers take on the Fairfield Stags in the opening round of the MAAC Tournament.
Fairfield is clearly the better team, but the Stags and Jaspers split in the regular season.
This is a really high total for the MAAC Tournament. The Under is 37-17 in the last 54 MAAC Tournament games.
Neither team is pushing the pace all that much, and this one is played on a neutral floor in a larger venue than these teams are accustomed to on a regular basis.
Fairfield takes a lot of shots from inside the paint, but they rank in the bottom 25 nationally in near-proximity efficiency on offense.
Meanwhile, Manhattan takes a lot of long-range jumpers, which could be a real issue with the unusual shooting backdrop. The Jaspers were also wildly inconsistent on offense down the stretch.
A spread at this number does worry me at least somewhat for a late foul fest, but these two teams haven’t gotten to the line much this season.
Pick: Under 150.5
South Dakota State vs St. Thomas Picks
| SD State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -112 | 149.5 -105o / -115u | +215 |
| St. Thomas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -108 | 149.5 -105o / -115u | -265 |
St. Thomas is the second seed in the Summit League Tournament.
The Tommies are a really fun team to watch play basketball. Johnny Tauer’s team is fundamentally sound. The Tommies don’t give up many second chances. They don’t put opponents on the line very often. They take great care of the basketball on the offensive end.
South Dakota State isn’t on the same level as it has been in recent seasons. The Jackrabbits rank 192nd nationally in offensive efficiency, a far cry from some of the great offenses they have had in the last decade. South Dakota State also slowed its pace down this season, ranking 211th in tempo.
The under is 13-3 in the last 16 games at the Summit League Tournament. This is once again a high total for a neutral floor contest in a win-or-go-home situation.
Pick: Under 149.5
Pepperdine vs Portland Picks
| Pepperdine Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -112 | 152.5 -105o / -115u | +110 |
| Portland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -108 | 152.5 -105o / -115u | -130 |
The Pepperdine Waves have allowed at least 79 points in 10 straight games. That’s consistently terrible defense down the stretch from the Waves.
Orleans Arena is home to the WCC Tournament and is known for its generous rims. The Over is 55.5% in over 300 games at that stadium.
Portland likes to get to the basket on offense, while Pepperdine doesn’t have any shot blockers. The Waves rank 278th nationally in block rate.
Freshman Joel Foxwell had 35 points for Portland the last time these two played, and he should waltz into the paint in the rematch.
Pepperdine has really turned up the tempo late in the season. The Waves rank second in the WCC in tempo.
Pepperdine ended Portland’s season in the first game of the tournament last year. Portland is a mediocre team, but Shantay Legans is a good head coach, and I think he’ll have his team ready to play.
Pick: Portland TT Over 77.5
