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We’re ten days into the college hoops season. So far this season, the under has cashed on 52.6 percent of games. Home underdogs are 45-30 ATS (60 percent) on the young season.
The market is still trying to figure out how to properly rate a lot of different teams. We see large line movements on many games because the oddsmakers are unsure how to rate many of the teams as well.
Let’s see if we can find some value on the board for this Friday the 13th.
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Ohio State vs UConn
The Ohio State Buckeyes lost their star leader, Bruce Thornton. Ohio State has a lot of young talent, but they don’t really have any leadership on the team. Ohio State started out hot against BYU and had a lead for much of the game before completely faltering late and losing by 11 points.
Ohio State hasn’t looked good in their two games since that loss either. The Buckeyes trailed Youngstown State with a couple of minutes to play until halftime. Ohio State then only led Marshall by six points with six minutes left.
They went on to win by ten points, but they were favored by 25.5 points in that contest. Ohio State ranks 231st nationally in effective field goal percentage defense. The Buckeyes don’t force many turnovers. They also lack a shot blocker in the paint.
UConn blew away their two inferior opponents. The Huskies gave up only 46 points to Gardner-Webb. They allowed only 41 points against Wagner.
UConn also won their neutral site game against Michigan 85-77. UConn controlled that game the whole way, and they led by as many as 18 points.
Whatever you may think of Dan Hurley, the man is obviously a fantastic basketball coach. Jake Diebler has struggled with adjustments during the game.
In my opinion, this is a coaching mismatch. This game has a real chance to snowball on the young Buckeyes.
Pick: UConn -10.5
Northern Iowa vs Michigan State
What can you say about Michigan State? Tom Izzo’s team has looked fantastic in the early going. They are coming off the neutral-site win over Duke on Tuesday. Jordan Scott blocked six shots as the Spartans' defense put on a really impressive display.
Michigan State now comes home to play Northern Iowa. After this game, Michigan State will travel to Knoxville to take on the Tennessee Volunteers. This game is a sandwich spot.
I love Izzo, and I think this is a very good Michigan State team. At the same time, the market has made a huge adjustment to the Michigan State side here. If you had lined this game a week ago, it would have been Michigan State -22 or so.
The opening line here was Michigan State -25.5, and the money is coming in all over the Spartans laying the huge number. Could Michigan State throttle Northern Iowa? They might do so, but I think considering the spot and the point spread tax you are paying, it is a dangerous wager to make.
Northern Iowa isn’t a high-level team this season, but the Panthers are likely to give solid effort the whole way. Northern Iowa has good outside shooters, and this Panthers team will be higher scoring than recent versions.
Pick: Northern Iowa +29.5
Xavier vs Mississippi State
An early-season contest here on a neutral floor. The early season games on neutral courts have trended toward the under pretty strongly in the long term.
Both of these teams have been putting up huge numbers on offense in the early going this season. I think that is making the market overshoot on this total.
Mississippi State has scored 106, 82, and 98 points in their three contests. Xavier has scored 97, 76, and 100 points in their three contests. Mississippi State hasn’t played a defense thus far that will finish in the top 250 nationally.
Xavier played two awful defenses, and the one decent defense they faced was Eastern Michigan, who did a solid job holding them to 76 points.
Xavier spent a bunch of time in the offseason working on upgrading their defense. Richard Pitino talked about how, in his last season in New Mexico, when they got to the NCAA Tournament and won a game, their defense ranked 19th in the nation in defensive efficiency.
Tru Washington came in from Miami, and he is one of the best perimeter defenders in the country.
Mississippi State isn’t the snail they were a few years ago, but Chris Jans is still a defensive-minded head coach. I find it unlikely that they would want to get into an all-out track meet in this one.
This one is played at The Greenbrier in West Virginia. It’s a very unique court where the shooting backdrops aren’t what shooters are accustomed to seeing.
Pick: Under 165.5
