Colorado vs Boise State Pick & Prediction for Wednesday

Two Rocky Mountain squads head east to Dayton for arguably the most intriguing First Four matchup of this year's NCAA Tournament.

Neither team was expected to be here in the preseason but for different reasons.

Colorado entered the year as a hyped Pac-12 threat, landing just outside the first AP Top 25 while ranking 28th in KenPom’s initial batch of rankings.

Loaded with talent via returners, the portal and a star freshman, the Buffs’ season-long battle with injuries undercut their efforts to fulfill those expectations.

Boise State, meanwhile, constitutes another Leon Rice coaching master class.

The Broncos lost two key starters from a 10-seed in the NCAA Tournament, including crunch-time killer Marcus Shaver. But Rice uncovered a star in the form of St. John’s transfer O’Mar Stanley, and Boise compiled 22 wins against a top-30 schedule.

Despite a Pac-12 Tournament final loss to Oregon, Colorado feels like a team hitting a crescendo in its season as we arrive at March Madness.

Heralded rookie Cody Williams has been in and out of the lineup all season, and though he may not be quite 100%, he delivered significant contributions in the Pac-12 Tournament.

Even ignoring health, Colorado is trending up.

The Buffs won eight straight before that close Oregon defeat, giving themselves a buffer to the bid-stealing insanity of Championship Week. Since the start of that streak on Feb. 17, Colorado ranks 16th, per BartTorvik, showing impressive balance between offense and defense.

The offense has been the more notable unit this year, though, largely thanks to nuclear scoring guard KJ Simpson. He never leaves the floor — leading the Pac-12 in minutes — and his combination of high usage plus high efficiency is hard to match.

Head coach Tad Boyle loves to put him in dribble handoffs, which put the defender in a tough spot of trailing and allowing a drive, or going under and risking a Simpson triple.

If the defense overhelps, he can also be a precise passer to a bevy of other weapons.

The frontcourt combo of Tristan da Silva and Eddie Lampkin brings some “thunder and lightning” to the lineup. Da Silva can score off the bounce or via jumpers, while Lampkin is a wrecking ball on the glass and as a screener.

CU saw a ton of zone this year. Per Synergy, foes played some sort of zone look 15.2% of the time, the 32nd-highest rate in the country, and Colorado struggled against such looks, scoring just 0.918 points per possession to rank 222nd nationally.

Fortunately for the Buffs, Boise State rarely mixes defense (just 2.1% of the time), but watch out for a curveball from Rice.

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Make it five straight years now that Boise State has finished more than 20 spots higher than its preseason KenPom ranking.

Rice, a former Gonzaga assistant from 1999-2010, is one of the most underrated coaches in the country. He has now made three straight NCAA Tournaments and five total at Boise State. Before he arrived, the Broncos qualified for one in 20 years.

His son, Max, has been a huge part of the current stretch. A bona fide sniper from beyond the arc, Max provides what limited backcourt pop this Boise team has.

Point guard play is a concern, as UC San Diego transfer Roddie Anderson has struggled to hit shots and avoid turnovers. Instead, the Broncos feature a battering ram frontcourt that can wear down foes.

Boise State ranks 22nd nationally in frequency of post-ups and 32nd in efficiency on those plays, per Synergy.

Stanley is the leader there, a bully with an impressive bag of moves. Fellow 6-foot-8 forward Tyson Degenhart also drills mismatches on the block; his own blend of crafty skill and physicality makes him a handful.

Teams rarely have two adequate post defenders — and sometimes, teams even need three against the Broncos. Former Big 12 forwards Cam Martin (Kansas) and Chibuzo Agbo (Texas Tech) are also capable of scoring inside, though Agbo’s value also resides in his perimeter stroke.

Unfortunately for Boise State, Colorado is enormous and has multiple big wings and forwards to tangle with Boise’s post threats. Rice will have to find creative ways to free them up inside.

Defensively, Boise State is all man-to-man. None of its skilled forwards are shot-blockers besides an occasional Stanley swat, so the Broncos can be vulnerable at the rim.

Rice compensates for this by keeping his defense compact. The Broncos are also one of the best defensive-rebounding teams in the entire country.

Colorado feels like a team ascending back to its preseason expectation level.

A nearly healthy Williams adds a dynamic two-way playmaker to a team that was already starting to peak without him, and Simpson and da Silva are both capable of reaching star status in March.

The matchup seems beneficial, as well.

While Boise may turn off the water on the offensive glass, the Broncos will rarely throw out pressure or zone looks, both of which can give CU trouble.

The Buffaloes also have the individual defenders to hold up against Boise’s mismatch threats. Typically, Stanley, Degenhart, Martin and Agbo will overwhelm smaller foes on the block and mid-post, but the Buffs are the rare squad that’s even bigger than Boise.

Finally, a reminder: if you want to bet a Mountain West team in the tournament, you better have a great reason. Since 2006, MWC squads are 23-46-2 (33.3%) against the spread in the Big Dance.

Colorado marches on to the Round of 64 on Friday.

Pick: Colorado -2.5 (Play to -4)

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