The Colorado Buffaloes take on the Houston Cougars in Houston, Texas. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Houston is favored by 18.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -5000. The total is set at 141.5 points.
Here’s my Colorado vs. Houston predictions and college basketball picks for February 28, 2026.
Colorado vs Houston Prediction
My Pick: Under 141.5
My Colorado vs Houston best bet is on the Under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Colorado vs. Houston Odds
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18.5 -110 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | +1600 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18.5 -110 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | -5000 |
- Colorado vs Houston spread: Houston -18.5
- Colorado vs Houston over/under: 141.5
- Colorado vs Houston moneyline: Colorado +1600, Houston -5000
Colorado vs Houston College Basketball Betting Preview
Colorado Basketball
Colorado has been a bit better than you’d think. After starting 2-6 in league play, the Buffaloes are now 6-9 in Big 12 action.
If you look at the whole season for Colorado, you’ll see an offensive-first team, as it ranks 59th in offensive efficiency, per KenPom. It also ranks outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency for the season, but head coach Tad Boyle was able to right that ship in February.
The Buffs boosted their defensive efficiency to 25th this month, while their offense has lagged at 158th. That's led to a 4-3 record in February.
The biggest shift for Colorado’s defense is some positive 3-point regression; it's allowed 33% from deep compared to 36% for the season. Plus, the Buffs' interior is strong, holding teams to 47% shooting from 2-point range.
Boyle tends to have really good guards, and that’s no different this season. Freshman phenom Isaiah Johnson leads the Buffs with 16 points per game, while shooting 48% from the field and 37% from 3.
His backcourt mate — Barrington Hargress — is a skilled floor general and driver, averaging 14 points with 4.4 assists per game. However, it’s tough to get into paint against Houston, which will force Johnson and Hargress to shoot 3s.
On the interior, Colorado could struggle, as it has against teams with more interior beef. Sebastian Rancik is the starting four-man, and he stands 6-foot-11, 220 pounds. He can really shoot it, which makes him tough to defend, though.
At the five is the very lean Bangot Dak, who stands at seven-foot, 203 pounds. He's one of the more athletic bigs in the conference, but he's just too skinny to hang with burlier opponents.
Houston Basketball
Kelvin Sampson is known for practicing his players hard, so I'm sure he didn't let up after Houston dropped three straight games. After a brief reset, the Cougars will look to get back on track as hefty favorites.
The same issue occurred in all three losses: Houston went on a five-plus minute scoring drought in all three games. In the Iowa State and Arizona losses, it happened late in the game, while it happened early in the second half versus Kansas.
So, what's the issue for Houston? For one, the lack of an interior scorer is clear. JoJo Tugler floats around the perimeter and sets screens because he's a total non-scoring threat. Last season, J'Wan Roberts bailed Houston out of tough situations with his interior scoring.
That means Kingston Flemings, Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan have to play well on the perimeter. Flemings went 6-for-17 against Arizona and 6-for-18 against Kansas. Sharp went 7-for-32 during the three-game losing skid. There just isn't enough scoring here if Flemings and Sharp struggle that badly.
On the defensive end, the Cougars remain elite, ranking eighth in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. For all of Tugler's issues, he's the main reason why Houston holds teams to 46% shooting on 2s.
Plus, opponents shoot just 31% from deep and turn the ball over 21% of the time.
Colorado vs. Houston Betting Analysis
To me, the best play is the under.
Houston is plenty capable of bludgeoning inferior foes, but I think the offensive issues are legitimate.
I think the Cougars will complicate things for the Buffaloes' offense. Houston's physical defense makes driving tough on everybody, but Hargress and Johnson are both 6-foot-1. Scoring over the bigger bodies the Cougars have will force them to shoot it from deep.
Plus, Colorado isn't a great shooting team. Hargress and Johnson can light it up from deep, but every other starter shoots below 33% from downtown.
That'll make it difficult for Colorado to score.
That, in part with Houston's offensive struggles and Colorado's uptick in defense, makes this the perfect under play.
My Pick: Under 141.5
