The Colorado State Rams take on the Boise State Broncos in Boise, Idaho. Tip-off is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Boise State is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a price of 71 cents to win and the total set at 141.5 points on Fanatics Markets.
Here’s my Colorado State vs. Boise State prediction and college basketball picks for January 16, 2026.
Colorado State vs Boise State Prediction
My Pick: Under 141.5 (Play to 140)
My Colorado State vs Boise State best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Colorado State vs. Boise State Odds
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Colorado State vs Boise State College Basketball Betting Preview
Colorado State Basketball
Colorado State has seen the momentum of a hot start fizzle out as this team has really struggled in conference play.
The Rams sit at 2-4 in the Mountain West and their most recent loss at Fresno State might indicate that they're a year away from being a major player in the conference.
Injuries have plagued this group, as leading scorer Kyle Jorgensen has missed the last seven games and Rashaan Mbemba is just getting back into the fold after missing the first 15 games.
Brandon Rechsteiner and Josh Pascarelli have stepped up, as they're both averaging 12 points per game while being consistent outside shooting threats.
Defensively, Colorado State has struggled to protect the rim and also doesn't force a ton of turnovers. My opinion is that Colorado State is still formulating its defensive identity in year one under Ali Farokhmanesh.
This group doesn’t show a ton of pressure, it doesn't get a ton of steals and it's seen a lot of made outside shots against it.
Regression naturally should be coming, but this defense needs to ratchet up the intensity if it wants to compete down the stretch in MWC play.
Boise State Basketball
Boise State has also struggled in conference play, which is par for the course for this 2025-26 season for Leon Rice and the Broncos.
Boise opened its season with a loss against non-Division I Hawaii-Pacific. Then it defeated Wichita State, Butler and Saint Mary’s in the non-conference, helping it sit in a position to build its case as a fringe NCAA Tournament team.
League play, however, has seen this team play its way out of consideration for anything “at-large,” and the Broncos are going to have to go on a run to save their season.
Drew Fielder is the guy offensively for Boise State, as the junior is averaging 13.3 points per game. He leads four Broncos who average double figures in points.
Andrew Meadow and Javan Buchanan each chip in 12 points per game and both can hit the occasional 3-ball. There aren't many more reliable shooting options for this offense, which ranks just 270th nationally in effective field goal percentage.
Boise doesn’t excel at much of anything offensively, but this group does move the ball well and post entries result in good looks or trips to the foul line.
Defensively, Boise State has proficiently kept its opponents off the glass, and the Broncos do defend the 3-point line well. The Broncos don't force a ton of turnovers, but they also don't get beaten in transition.
This game against Colorado State will give us some good insight as to if there's any improvement made with the Broncos' half-court defense. Improvements are needed, as Boise has been shredded since the turn of the new year.
Colorado State vs. Boise State Betting Analysis
This line opened Boise State -6 with a total set at 141.5. I'm diving in on the under.
I don't think Boise State’s defense is quite as bad as it's shown over the last three weeks while dropping five of six conference games.
Boise State has played the sixth-toughest schedule in the entire country and the schedule has been littered with powerful offensive opponents.
Colorado State is without its leading scorer in this game, and the Rams are still searching for answers on the offensive end. I would expect Boise State to defend the 3-point line well at home, and the Friday night environment should make it tough for Colorado State to sink shots early.
No team in the country operates at a slower pace offensively than Colorado State, which ranks 365th, last in the country in adjusted tempo. The Rams are also 357th in raw tempo and Boise State is 235th, so I don't expect more than 61 possessions in regulation.
Colorado State is going to struggle to score here. This team shoots a ton of 3-point shots, but I think the length of Boise State on the wings is really going to cause problems for the Rams. While Colorado State is burying 3s at over 40%, I expect a poor shooting night in this matchup.
Both of these teams are in must-win mode the rest of the way. I expect this game to be slower-paced and for both offenses to be methodical offensively.
This game should be close and tight throughout, but I don't expect enough total possessions to get this one over the total, which I think is a hair too high as is.
My Pick: Under 141.5 (Play to 140)
