The Drake Bulldogs take on the Belmont Bruins in St. Louis, MO. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Belmont is favored by 13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1250. The total is set at 152.5 points.
Here’s my Drake vs. Belmont predictions and college basketball picks for March 6, 2026.
Drake vs Belmont Prediction
My Pick: Under 159.5
My Drake vs Belmont best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Drake vs. Belmont Spread, Total, Pick
| Drake Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -114 | 152.5 -110o / -110u | +740 |
| Belmont Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -106 | 152.5 -110o / -110u | -1250 |
My Pick: Under 159.5
My Drake vs Belmont best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Drake vs Belmont College Basketball Prediction
Drake entered "Arch Madness" on a nine-game losing streak dating back to January 31. The Bulldogs ended the streak with a win over Southern Illinois in the first round, 67-63.
The Bulldogs' defense fell off a cliff during that skid, ranking 325th in efficiency over those 10 games. Opponents hit 3s at an absurd 42% clip, which is fairly unsustainable.
They also offer no ball pressure, as Drake forced turnovers on just 14% of the time.
Just looking at the lineup, it's easy to see why the defense is porous. Four of the five starters are 6-foot-6 or shorter.
Eli Shetlar is 6-foot-6, 190 pounds, and can't hang against most opposing power forwards. He's a pure shooter, but he can't defend. Owen Larson is 6-foot-1, while the other two — Jalen Quinn and Andrew Alia — are 6-foot-3.
Larson, who came with Eric Henderson from South Dakota State, looks like a guy just a year off an ACL tear. A once prolific shooter, Larson is hitting 25% from 3 this season and is a total net negative.
Alia was the lone holdover from the Ben McCollum and Darian DeVries era. He barely played prior to this season, and he's shooting 37% from 3. However, the only thing he can do is shoot.
That's how you end up with Quinn, who averages 19 points per game, being the team's lone elite scorer. He scored 22 points in the first-round win.
The Bulldogs want to be a good shooting team, but they just aren't. Over 45% of Drake's shots come from deep, and the team shoots only 34% from that range.
On the flip side, Belmont is the clear favorite to win the MVC Tournament. The Bruins are 26-5 overall and 16-4 in Valley play, and they lost the final game of the regular season to Illinois State.
The Bruins run a high-functioning offense under Casey Alexander, as they rank 35th in offensive efficiency. The ball movement from the Bruins is infectious, with 61% of their made shots coming off an assist. Plus, Belmont ranks fifth in 2-point percentage at 61.1% and second in the country in 3-point percentage (41.2%).
Tyler Lundblade is the go-to guy for Belmont. He won the MVC Player of the Year award, and he averages 15 points per game and shoots 41% from 3. His shooting ability is dangerous, but the gravity he gets from being an elite marksman opens up the offense.
The big man duo of Drew Scharnowski and Sam Orme should dominate this smaller Drake team. Scharnowski, a sophomore, is super athletic and versatile. He scores 10 points with six rebounds per game. He also flashes his passing with 2.6 assists and 1.3 blocks per game.
He's a big-time stat stuffer for Belmont. Orme is the shooter of the bunch; he drills 37% of his shots from deep, and his size and shooting will dominate Shetlar.
The problem for Belmont is turnovers, which is odd for such an efficient offense. It turns the ball over 18% of the time.
Starting point guard Nic McClain is injured, and Isaiah West is starting in his place. West doesn't do much well, but freshman guard Jack Smiley can really play. He's a shooter and highly skilled in pick-and-rolls.
On the defensive end, Belmont will be fine with Drake shooting 3s. Opponents shoot 3s on almost half of their shots against this Belmont defense, which is a good thing for the Bruins.
Regardless, I'm going with the under. The Enterprise Center is known for hard rims and countless clanks. For two teams that are built on shooting, the lack of shooting in St. Louis could lead to woeful numbers.
Belmont will be able to score on Drake inside, so Alexander may pivot to running stuff through the bigs to take advantage of Drake's woeful interior.
I just can't lay the number with the potential shooting concerns in this arena.
My Pick: Under 159.5
