The No. 6 Duke Blue Devils (12-1) take on the Florida State Seminoles (7-7) in Tallahassee, Florida. Tip-off is set for 3:45 p.m. ET on CBS.
Duke is favored by 15.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1600. The total is set at 163.5 points.
Here’s my Duke vs. Florida State prediction and college basketball picks for January 3, 2026.
Duke vs Florida State Predictions, Picks for Today's College Basketball Game
My Pick: Florida State +16.5 (Play to +14.5)
My Duke vs Florida State best bet is on the Seminoles against the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Duke vs. Florida State Odds, Betting Lines, Over/Under
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -105 | 163.5 -112o / -108u | -1600 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -115 | 163.5 -112o / -108u | +900 |
- Duke vs Florida State spread: Duke -15.5
- Duke vs Florida State over/under: 163.5 points
- Duke vs Florida State moneyline: Duke -1600, Florida State +900
Duke vs Florida State Game Preview
Duke Blue Devils: Need To Know
Duke is coming off a very inauspicious performance against Georgia Tech on New Year's Eve. The Blue Devils wound up winning 86-81, but it was never a comfortable lead.
Now heading on the road, what does Duke respond with?
Duke has some very concerning questions to answer on the offensive end. Every game, Cam Boozer puts on his Superman cape to save the day, but at what point will someone help him? Boozer is the National Player of the Year frontrunner and the nation's leading scorer with 23 points per game.
Due to Boozer's brilliance (and double teams), open 3s fall into the Blue Devils' lap. They haven't made teams pay enough, as they shoot just 34% from downtown. Isaiah Evans is probably the best shooter, but his percentage is low due to his streaky nature.
You can sense the panic from Jon Scheyer inserting point guard Cayden Boozer in the lineup for Dame Sarr. The other Boozer played well, scoring 13 points, but he went 0-of-4 from deep in the win over Georgia Tech.
Sarr and fellow freshman Nikolas Khamenia have to find their stroke. Both are below 35% from deep, which isn't what Duke brought them in to shoot.
Defense will have to be the saving grace for Duke. It ranks eighth in defensive efficiency, while holding foes to 43.7% shooting on 2s — a top-15 mark nationally.
The key here is limiting shooting. Duke holds teams to 28.9% from deep, and its positional length helps contest shots. However, shooting is all about variance; you just never know from game-to-game what a team's 3-point defensive numbers will look like.
Florida State Seminoles: Need To Know
Florida State will aim to take advantage of some potential variance. The Noles brought in Luke Loucks to bring a more modern offensive approach compared to Leonard Hamilton .
And Florida State plays a very modern brand of basketball, ranking eighth in adjusted tempo and shooting 3s on 54% of its field goals.
Everything for Loucks is about pace. He wants to speed up the opponent by pressuring full-court, which leads to a 22% defensive turnover rate.
On the flip side, it can lead to some very clean looks for the opponent. That's what holds the Seminoles to just 117th in defensive efficiency. They rank 219th nationally in 2-point field goal defense, so that could be a problem against Boozer and Co.
In the half-court, Florida State just has to sell out for doubling Boozer every possession. Force the shooters who have struggled to make opponents pay into hitting shots.
Plain and simple, if Florida State wants to avoid getting blown out — as it did against Georgia and Dayton — it has to shoot better. This season, Florida State is hitting 31% from deep, and the only player above 33% is guard Martin Somerville.
Loucks needs more from versatile four-man Chauncey Wiggins and lengthy wings Lajae Jones and Kobe MaGee. Each of them attempts more than five 3s per game and shoots below 33% from deep. Jones is the one to watch, as he drilled 10 3s in a game earlier this season.
Size certainly isn't in Florida State's favor. The tallest starter for Florida State is Wiggins at 6-foot-10, but he's a wiry 6-foot-10. The "center" is 6-foot-9 Alex Steen, who needs to stay out of foul trouble due to shaky depth behind him.
How To Make Duke vs. Florida State Best Bets
I just can't lay this many points with Duke on the road with some very glaring issues surrounding it.
The lack of weapons outside of Boozer is very, very scary.
Loucks is a sharp basketball mind, so I trust him to devise a game plan to make Boozer a passer.
Plus, all it takes is Florida State getting a little hot from deep to cover this number.
Will it allow 80+ points? Probably due to the Noles' pace. But they have better shooters than their percentage indicates.
My Pick: Florida State +16.5 (Play to +14.5)
How To Watch Duke vs Florida State
- Location: Tucker Center, Tallahassee, FL
- Date: Saturday, January 3, 2026
- Tip-Off: 3:45 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
