The Duke Blue Devils take on the Louisville Cardinals in Louisville, Kentucky. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Duke is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -108. The total is set at 161.5 points.
Here’s my Duke vs. Louisville prediction and college basketball picks for January 6, 2026.
Duke vs. Louisville Odds, Spread, Pick
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-1.5 -102 | 161.5 -112o / -108u | -108 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+1.5 -118 | 161.5 -112o / -108u | -112 |
My Pick: Over 162.5
My Duke vs Louisville best bet is on the over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Duke vs Louisville College Basketball Preview
Duke Blue Devils Preview
Duke is coming into this matchup 2-0 in the ACC with wins against Georgia Tech and Florida State.
In both wins, Duke had to go to zone to slow down its opponent. Duke's defense has dropped from top-five in KenPom to 16th as it continues to search for answers on that end of the floor.
The positives? The Blue Devils still have the best player in the country (Cam Boozer) and Isaiah Evans, who's coming off a career-high. Plus, sliding Cayden Boozer into the starting lineup has made Duke's offense more fluid, allowing Caleb Foster to play more off-ball.
Opposing offenses have been doing a good job recently of making Cam Boozer and Patrick Ngongba II guard on the perimeter, which is somewhere both are uncomfortable.
At the end of the day, Duke's guards and wings have to be able to defend the ball. Florida State ran pick-and-roll on 20 of its possessions and went isolation on 10 of them.
If Duke can get back to its defensive ways (it held Arkansas to 71 points and Michigan State to 60), then it'll come out with a win.
Louisville Cardinals Preview
Pat Kelsey confirmed on Monday morning that Mikel Brown Jr. will be out for this game, which will be Brown's fifth straight missed outing. Louisville is 2-2 in his absence this season.
Adrian Wooley has started all four games Brown has been out and is averaging 12.3 points per game in those starts.
Ryan Conwell is Louisville's leading scorer at 19.6 points per game, and I expect him to continue to pick up the slack with Brown out. He's coming off a poor shooting night in the loss to Stanford, as he went 6-of-21 from the field and 2-of-14 from 3.
However, I would bet he bounces back in a big way with Duke coming to town, especially this Duke team, which has struggled to guard the perimeter in its last four games.
Louisville shoots a 3 on almost 55% of its offensive possessions — which ranks first in the country — and is playing a Duke team that allowed Florida State to shoot 47% from 3 last game.
Why does that matter? Florida State is second in the country — behind only Louisville — when it comes to shooting a 3-pointer on 53.8% of its possessions.
For Louisville to beat Duke, it'll need Virginia transfer Isaac McKneely to step up. He's turned it on in the last three games, but if he shoots 2-of-10 — as he did in Louisville's loss to Tennessee — then I wouldn't expect Louisville to pull off the win.
Duke vs Louisville Betting Analysis
My biggest concern for Duke is Louisville's biggest strength. Can Duke guard the 3-point line against a team that shoots the most 3s in college basketball?
Duke failed that test at Florida State. Is it up to the same task against a better shooting team in a hostile environment?
My biggest question mark for Louisville is how it'll try to slow down Cam Boozer. The freshman will thrive if he plays one-on-one, and if Louisville shows help, Boozer will find the open man — as he did at Florida State when he had nine assists.
I expect this game to be played in the 80s.
My Pick: Over 162.5
