The Duke Blue Devils take on the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing, MI. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on FOX.
Michigan State is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -110. The total is set at 139 points.
Here’s my Duke vs. Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks for December 6, 2025.
Duke vs Michigan State Prediction
My Pick: Under 138.5 (Play to 136)
My Duke vs Michigan St best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Duke vs. Michigan State Odds
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 139 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| Michigan St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 139 -110o / -110u | -110 |
- Duke vs Michigan State spread: Michigan State -1.5
- Duke vs Michigan State over/under: 139 points
- Duke vs Michigan State moneyline: Duke -110, Michigan State -110
Duke vs Michigan State College Basketball Betting Preview
Duke Basketball
Duke narrowly snuck past Florida, thanks to an Isaiah Evans clutch 3 on Tuesday. The schedule is only getting tougher with Michigan State looming.
The Blue Devils are largely a one-man show — the man being freshman phenom Cameron Boozer. The National Player of the Year frontrunner leads Duke in points (23.6), rebounds (9.3), assists (3.7), steals (1.7) and even adds a block for good measure.
If an opponent can force Boozer into being a passer, does Duke have enough offensively? I’m skeptical. The only other two double-digit scorers are fellow big man Patrick Ngongba II and Evans, who’s as streaky as it gets. Boozer almost has to score 25+ points for Duke to beat a team like Michigan State.
Duke ranks 18th in offensive efficiency when you eliminate preseason bias from Torvik's numbers. That sounds about right — and matches the eye test. There's been some real dry spells from Duke in every big game it's played. Then, Boozer takes over and tilts the game in the Blue Devils direction. That probably isn't a sustainable method for a full season, though.
Duke has to find other players who can step up and help Boozer in games like this.
On the flip side, Duke is also terrific on the defensive end. The Blue Devils have elite positional length, as all five starters are 6-foot-5 or taller. That length serves as a deterrent to teams driving and forces them into shooting 3s 45% of the time.
The Blue Devils aren't looking to push the pace, either. They sit 258th in adjusted tempo and are much more equipped to play a defensive-first game than in past years.
Michigan State Basketball
Michigan State has been one of the more impressive squads to begin the season. The Spartans own four wins over teams ranked inside KenPom’s top-50 (UNC, Iowa, Kentucky, Arkansas). None of the four cracked 70 points, and two of them didn’t crack 60.
Tom Izzo still possesses an old-school mindset — favoring retention instead of overindulging in the portal. Jaxon Kohler and Jeremy Fears Jr. represent another pair of development success stories under Izzo. Kohler leads the Spartans with 14 points and nine rebounds per game, while Fears is up to 12 ppg with a nation-leading 9.4 apg. That pair isn’t overly flashy, but they’re one of the more consistent ones you’ll find.
The Spartans' DNA is playing slow, ranking 304th in adjusted tempo, per Torvik. They also have a defensive DNA, sitting third in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. The tempo and defensive-first style are conducive to playing in low-scoring rock fights.
You won’t find many better teams at dominating the shot-volume battle than Michigan State. It secures an offensive rebound on 42% of its misses and holds teams to a diminutive 24% offensive rebounding rate.
Shooting remains a concern for the Spartans, as they shoot just 33% from beyond the arc. The only two reliable shooters on the roster are Kohler and Fears Jr. Both were below-average shooters last year, and both are over 40% this year. However, teams will still go under screens on Fears to make him a scorer instead of a passer.
Duke vs. Michigan State Betting Analysis
The total is sitting at 138.5 at the time of writing. On the surface, that seems a bit low, but both teams have serious offensive question marks. Michigan State can't shoot, Duke lacks a clear second option, and both teams aim to play a slower tempo.
Everything lines up for this to be a defensive battle played in the 60s.
My Pick: Under 138.5 (Play to 136)
