The Florida State Seminoles take on the Florida Gators in Gainesville, FL. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Florida is favored by -18.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -4000. The total is set at 179.5 points.
Here’s my Florida State vs. Florida prediction and college basketball picks for November 11, 2025.
Florida State vs Florida Prediction
My Pick: Florida -17.5 (Play to -19)
My Florida State vs Florida best bet is on the Gators to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Florida State vs. Florida Odds
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18.5 -110 | 179.5 -110 / -110 | +1550 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18.5 -110 | 179.5 -110 / -110 | -4000 |
- Florida State vs Florida spread: Florida -18.5
- Florida State vs Florida over/under: 179.5 points
- Florida State vs Florida moneyline: Florida State +1550, Florida -4000
Florida State vs Florida College Basketball Betting Preview
Florida State Basketball
Luke Loucks has a tall task in rebuilding his alma mater. Florida State has endured a rough past couple of seasons, but it's off to a 2-0 start and an even better 2-0 against-the-spread start in Loucks debut campaign.
Although Loucks learned from Leonard Hamilton during his playing days, he's brought what he learned as an NBA assistant to Florida State. The Noles play fast, ranking 59th in adjusted tempo, and attempt 3s on 53.3% of their field goal attempts. That's a very 3-point-or-bust approach.
Leading the way are Lajae Jones and Robert McCray. Jones is an exceptional athlete who can also shoot it. He's averaging a team-high 19 points per game so far this season. McCray is the straw that stirs the drink for the Noles, tossing 17 assists in his last game.
Another standout is forward Chauncey Wiggins, who's second in scoring behind Jones. Wiggins is a perfect fit for what Loucks wants to do, but he could be overmatched by Florida and its outstanding interior.
For Florida State, that'll be the problem. The Seminoles have very shaky interior options. Alex Steen is a Division II transfer who's looked fine so far, but facing Florida is a different beast than Alabama State.
Not to mention, Alabama State grabbed 13 offensive rebounds in its loss to Florida State.
That doesn't make me feel great about the Noles and their chances of keeping the best offensive rebounding team in the country off the glass.
Florida Basketball
The Gators took out their frustrations from their disappointing loss to Arizona on North Florida, beating it by 40 points.
The Gators scored 1.30 PPP and shot just 6-for-32 from downtown.
That's a promising sight for their future offensive outlook.
So far, Florida is shooting just 22% from downtown this season. I think we'll see some positive regression soon enough. Even if it doesn't come, the Gators are rebounding 50% of their missed shots.
Even in the loss to Arizona, the Gators snagged 17 offensive rebounds. They're dominating the shot-volume battle, but the issue is the shots haven't fallen yet.
It all starts with Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee playing better. Fland has yet to connect on a shot from deep this year, and Lee is just 5-for-19. That pair is proven enough to start getting rolling soon.
Florida also has arguably the best interior in the sport. The Gators have preseason All-American Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh. But Rueben Chinyelu and Micah Handlogten, who split minutes at the five, play a large hand in Florida being elite on the glass.
Florida State vs. Florida Betting Analysis
The Seminoles have dominated the cupcake portion of their schedule. That's a positive sign for a first-year head coach.
I feel a blowout coming here, though. Florida is tough, physical and relentless on the glass. All it takes is one good shooting game from Fland and Lee to right the ship and get the Gators' offense where it should be.
I'll grab the Gators at -17.5, as it's a statement game for them in their rivalry.
My Pick: Florida -17.5 (Play to -19)
