The Florida State Seminoles take on the UNC Tar Heels in Chapel Hill, NC. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
UNC is favored by -14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1700. The total is set at 160.5 points.
Here’s my Florida State vs. UNC predictions and college basketball picks for December 30, 2025.
Florida State vs UNC Prediction
My Pick: Under 160.5 (Play to 159.5)
My Florida State vs UNC best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Florida State vs. UNC Odds
| Florida St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 160.5 -110o / -110u | +950 |
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 160.5 -110o / -110u | -1700 |
- Florida State vs UNC spread: UNC -14.5
- Florida State vs UNC over/under: 160.5 points
- Florida State vs UNC moneyline: Florida State +950, UNC -1700
Florida State vs UNC College Basketball Betting Preview
Florida State Basketball
Florida State got off to a 5-1 start before suffering a five-game losing streak.
It returned home for victories against Mississippi Valley State and Jacksonville to get back above .500 heading into the holiday break.
Now the Noles will head to Chapel Hill to begin ACC play, and they'll need more quality against high-quality opponents.
Florida State gave rival Florida all it could handle in a 78-76 loss in Gainesville. Since then, it lost to Texas A&M, Georgia and Houston by 15 points or more. Even games against A-10 foes — Massachusetts and Dayton — didn't go well either, including a 28-point defeat at Dayton.
Under first-year head coach Luke Loucks, Florida State has looked to push the pace more than under longtime coach Leonard Hamilton. The Seminoles are sixth in adjusted tempo and shortest offensive possession length.
However, the team has struggled on both ends, ranking 114th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 113th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The fast pace has provided ample opportunities for point guard Robert McCray V to rack up assists. Back in the ACC after transferring in from Jacksonville, McCray is averaging 13.5 points and 7.1 dimes per game, which is tied for the conference lead and ranks seventh nationally.
UNC Basketball
After a first-round exit in the NCAA Tournament last season, expectations were more tepid in Chapel Hill compared to most years.
The Tar Heels entered the campaign just inside the top 25 in the polls. While the Tar Heels are still just 22nd on KenPom, they're off to a 12-1 start behind arguably the nation's best frontcourt tandem.
Forward Caleb Wilson is averaging 19.8 points, 10.8 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks per game, while center Henri Veesaar is averaging 16.8 points and 9.2 rebounds a night.
With each passing game, they keep playing themselves into lofty company in UNC history. Tyler Hansborough holds the program record with 14 20-point games as a freshman, while Antwan Jamison had the most double-doubles with 13 as a freshman. Wilson already has nine of each through 13 games.
Veesaar has seven double-doubles himself, and they each have had a double-double game in the same matchup six times. That's already the fourth-most by a duo in school history and they need just four in the same game to set the school record.
Wilson and Vessaar have made North Carolina incredibly difficult to score on inside. It ranks second in Division I in 2-point field-goal percentage defense and first in effective field goal percentage.
North Carolina hasn't forced many turnovers this season and ranks 339th in turnover percentage defensively. It's the main blemish for a defense that ranks 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency thus far this season.
North Carolina will need better perimeter play to reach its goals for this season. It's shooting 33.6% from 3, which ranks 182nd in Division I.
Meanwhile, point guard Kyan Evans is averaging just 5.8 points and 3.9 assists while shooting below 40% from the field in 24.5 minutes per game.
True freshman Derek Dixon has shown flashes, and senior leader Seth Trimble figures to play a significant role in the backcourt.
In two games since returning from a broken forearm, Trimble is averaging 14.5 points, three rebounds and four assists per game.
Florida State vs. UNC Betting Analysis
North Carolina ranks 214th in adjusted tempo, putting it on pace to rank outside the top 100 for the first time since the 2003 season. That sets up a contrast of styles in this game with the run-and-gun Seminoles.
The Tar Heels have held all 13 opponents to fewer than 75 points this season, their longest such streak to begin a season in 40 years.
As a result, the Heels are 10-3 to the under this season, with games against Michigan State, Kentucky, Georgetown and Ohio State all landing under.
Despite its defensive struggles and fast pace, Florida State is 8-5 to the under this season as well. It'll be at a size advantage on the interior, as it'll try to score against Wilson, Veesaar and Jarin Stevenson when he slides down to the four spot.
Additionally, neither team shoots all that well from 3, and the lack of treys in this game could make reaching 161 points difficult.
My Pick: Under 160.5 (Play to 159.5)
