The Hofstra Pride play the Alabama Crimson Tide in the first round of the NCAA Tournament from Tampa, Florida. Tip-off is set for 3:15 p.m. ET on truTV.
Alabama is favored by -11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -880. Meanwhile, Hofstra is the underdog at +11.5 with a moneyline of +580. The total is set at 158.5 points.
Here’s my Hofstra vs. Alabama prediction and college basketball picks for March 20, 2026.
Hofstra vs Alabama Prediction
My Pick: Hofstra +11.5 (Play to +9)
My Hofstra vs Alabama best bet is on the Pride to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Hofstra vs Alabama Odds
| Hofstra Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -105 | 158.5 -115o / -105u | +580 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -115 | 158.5 -115o / -105u | -880 |
- Hofstra vs Alabama spread: Alabama -11.5
- Hofstra vs Alabama over/under: 158.5 points
- Hofstra vs Alabama moneyline: Hofstra +580, Alabama -880
Hofstra vs Alabama College Basketball Betting Preview
Hofstra Basketball
Hofstra is an interesting team. The Pride already have a pair of high-major wins, beating Syracuse and Pittsburgh in November. Plus, it led the CAA in KenPom all season.
How fitting is it for one of the best guards in Hofstra history — Speedy Claxton — to coach a pair of high-major-caliber guards?
Cruz Davis is one of the best mid-major players in the NCAA Tournament, as he's averaging 20 points and four assists per game. He can score easily against the poor defensive Alabama guards.
The other is freshman Preston Edmead, who scored 26 points in the CAA title game and scored 22 in the semis.
It'll be a tall task for Alabama to contain both Edmead and Davis.
In the half-court, the Pride can struggle on their first shot if the 3s don't fall. They attempt 3s 43% of the time and hit 36% of them. But they shoot a horrid 49% on 2s and lack a true dump-down option at the hoop. Their rebounding ability saves things a bit, as they grab offensive boards 34% of the time.
You could say, well, that was against CAA teams. Sure, but UNC Wilmington and Charleston were taller than Bama, and the Pride did just fine against them.
The Pride starts a 7-footer in Silas Sunday, who's by far the largest big for either team. Behind him is Victory Onuetu, a strong defender who plays a nice role. Plus, Joshua DeCady, the starting four man, matches up well with Allen. He earned all-defensive honors in the CAA and is a real athlete.
Not to mention, Hofstra is one of the best teams in the country at defending the rim, holding teams to 44% on 2s. The Pride play like a high-major with their rebounding and dominance at the rim.
Alabama Basketball
The Crimson Tide went on an eight-game winning streak in February, but the vibe is pretty dark in Tuscaloosa. They lost two of their last three games, one to Georgia and one to Ole Miss.
The bigger issue is how Alabama will have to rally the troops without Aden Holloway. He was the Crimson Tide's second-leading scorer at 16 points per game, while shooting 43% from deep. Latrell Wrightsell and Houston Mallette, who are more pure shooters than a scorer like Holloway, will have to step up.
Nate Oats still has his system, regardless of Holloway's status. The Crimson Tide play at the fourth-fastest tempo nationally and attempt 3s on 53% of their looks — the most in the country. That can leave Alabama vulnerable to an upset if it has a poor shooting night.
The floor spacing opens up the lane for Alabama to score inside. That leads to the Tide shooting 57% on 2s, largely led by Labaron Philon Jr.'s dominance inside the arc.
The star guard for Alabama is so crafty. He leads the team with 20 points and four assists per game, while shooting 50% from the field and 40% from deep.
On the defensive end, Alabama is pretty poor, ranking 67th in defensive efficiency. The duo of Aidan Sherrell and Amari Allen does a good job contesting inside shots, holding opponents to 48% (54th) on 2s.
The issue is rebounding. Teams grab 32% of their misses against Alabama, which often disregards the glass to try to kickstart its offense.
Hofstra vs. Alabama Pick, Betting Analysis
Odds are that pace will determine who wins this one — or if Hofstra can cover. Hofstra is 317th in adjusted tempo, so that's polar opposite from the free-flowing Crimson Tide.
If Claxton can force Alabama to play a half-court game — which likely comes from dominating the offensive glass and hitting shots — the Pride have a chance to win.
Either way, 11.5 points is too many for an Alabama team without Holloway. He relieves pressure on Philon and can play backup point guard. The Tide could be in danger without him.
My Pick: Hofstra +11.5 (Play to +9)
