The Houston Cougars take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in Newark, New Jersey, in the Never Forget Tribute Classic. Tip-off is set for 5:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Houston is favored by -4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -205. The total is set at 144.5 points.
Here’s my Houston vs. Arkansas prediction and college basketball picks for December 20, 2025.
Houston vs Arkansas Prediction
My Pick: Houston -4.5 (Play to -5.5)
My Houston vs Arkansas best bet is on the Cougars to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Houston vs. Arkansas Odds
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 144.5 -110 / -110 | -205 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 144.5 -110 / -110 | +170 |
- Houston vs Arkansas spread: Houston -4.5
- Houston vs Arkansas over/under: 144.5 points
- Houston vs Arkansas moneyline: Houston -205, Arkansas +170
Houston vs Arkansas College Basketball Betting Preview
Houston Basketball
Houston began the season as the No. 1 team in the country in KenPom. A few close games and a loss to Tennessee dropped the Coogs to ninth.
However, make no mistake, Houston is still one of the best teams in America.
As usual, Houston is one of the best defensive teams in the country, ranking seventh in defensive efficiency.
The Cougars force teams into contested 3s or mid-range 2s most often. Opposing teams shoot 3s on 41% of field goals, and Houston doubling the post creates a lot of looks from deep.
The amount of ball pressure Houston puts on also leads to a 23.7% turnover rate. The opposing offense has few lanes to attack Houston with the post doubles, guard pressure and strong defensive rebounding. The best path is often shooting an early-clock 3.
Houston is having a down offensive season due to some inconsistent shooting. Last season, the Coogs hit 39% from 3, and they're down to 34% in 2025-26.
The issue isn't Emanuel Sharp; he's shooting 42% from deep. The issue is LJ Cryer is gone, and Kingston Fleming — who's a blur charging down the court — is less of a volume scorer than Cryer. If Fleming buys into letting it fly, he could shoot better than Cryer, I believe.
Reality is, Milos Uzan has to be better. The starting point guard from a national title team is shooting 35% from the field and 25% from deep. He has to get back to his scoring from 2024-25, or Houston will struggle offensively.
Houston always has a bit of a floor due to its offensive rebounding. Kelvin Sampson will ensure that's a program staple until he retires, and JoJo Tugler and Chris Cenac Jr. have done well to maintain Houston's glass-eating identity.
Arkansas Basketball
Arkansas is riding a real high entering Christmas. Winners of four straight, the Razorbacks have one of their toughest battles of the season against Houston on Saturday.
How does Arkansas match up? In my view, not well.
Here's why: Arkansas has two wins against top-25 level teams, beating Louisville and Texas Tech, and it also has a pair of losses to Duke and Michigan State. Facing Houston is a lot closer to facing Michigan State and Duke, as the Coogs have a similar pace and physicality.
The Razorbacks want to speed up Houston, as Arkansas ranks 51st in adjusted tempo.
With the speedy, talented freshman guard tandem of Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas, it's no shocker that Arkansas wants to push the pace. Both have more speed than most backcourts they face, so it's off to the races for Arkansas.
Speaking of Thomas, he's been brutal. He's scored 13 or fewer in four of his past five games and has shot 40% or below in each outing. Thomas is a pure scorer compared to Acuff, who's capable of running the offense and being a playmaker.
Arkansas ranks 22nd in KenPom's offensive efficiency, while shooting 55.1% on 2s and 38.2% on 3s. The good thing is that Arkansas isn't so reliant on shooting or driving to the point where it burns itself if it struggles in one of those areas.
A third option has also emerged in versatile forward Trevon Brazile, who's scored 20+ points in three of his last four games. We'll see how Brazile does against one of the toughest interior defenses in the country. The shooting Brazile has can open things up, but he could struggle in this game.
The Razorbacks are solid on the defensive end, sitting 33rd in defensive efficiency. The two biggest issues Arkansas faces are the glass and the rim, which could be an issue against Houston.
Houston vs. Arkansas Betting Analysis
I see Arkansas struggling. Houston tends to make life tough for younger guards, and Thomas and Acuff could have some issues.
Arkansas allowed 12 offensive boards to Duke and 19 to Michigan State, so Houston can dominate the shot-volume battle with rebounds.
At a neutral site, I'm happy taking the slow-paced Coogs to -5.5.
My Pick: Houston -4.5 (Play to -5.5)
