The Houston Cougars take on the Iowa State Cyclones in Ames, Iowa. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Iowa State is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. The total is set at 134.5 points.
Here’s my Houston vs. Iowa State prediction and college basketball picks for February 16, 2026.
Houston vs Iowa State Prediction
My Pick: Under 134.5
My Houston vs Iowa State best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Houston vs. Iowa State Odds
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 134.5 -110 / -110 | +110 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 134.5 -110 / -110 | -130 |
- Houston vs Iowa State spread: Iowa State -1.5
- Houston vs Iowa State over/under: 134.5 points
- Houston vs Iowa State moneyline: Houston +110, Iowa State -130
Houston vs Iowa State College Basketball Betting Preview
Two of the top teams in America square off on an otherwise light college basketball slate. Houston and Iowa State both have one-seed aspirations and are two of the top six defensive squads in the country.
These schools have met four times since Houston joined the Big 12. The Coogs took down the Clones last season in Houston, but Iowa State took two of three during the 2023-24 season (including a win in Ames).
Three of the four recent meetings between these teams have been low-possession slogs, with scoring totals hitting 127, 110, 138 and 110. While both offenses are hyper-efficient this season, this sets up to be another hard-fought defensive battle.
Houston is 7-3 against the spread over its last 10 games and boasts the best offense in the Big 12. The Coogs don't turn the rock over with their excellent guard play, which is extremely important against the stingy Clones' defense.
Ironically, Houston has the second-lowest field goal attempt rate at the rim nationally despite a dominant glass game and a super-efficient attack. The Cougars live in the mid-paint/mid-range area with talented guards like Kingston Flemings executing perfect pull-ups.
The pick-and-roll is key in Kelvin Sampson’s attack, as is guard creation is isolation. He knows his team’s strength lies in its backcourt, and future lottery pick Flemings has been torching opponents off the bounce.
Milos Uzan can also still get his, and Emanuel Sharp remains of the best outside marksman in the country.
But Iowa State is among the best ball-screen defenses in the country and defends one-on-one dribble drives arguably better than any other team.
The Clones will feed off their electric Hilton Coliseum crowd, which helped fuel them to a massive win over Kansas on Saturday. Iowa State is so tough to beat on this floor and hasn’t lost all season in Ames.
The Clones lead the conference in offensive rebounding, and Houston actually gives up a fair amount of second chances on the defensive glass – plus it hacks at one of the highest rates in the nation, meaning stud Iowa State forward Joshua Jefferson could live at the foul line.
The Coogs make teams beat them over the top, but Iowa State might welcome that with the best shooter in the nation in Milan Momcilovic featured on its perimeter.
However, ball handling will be a chief concern with Houston’s pressure and Iowa State’s looseness with the rock in Big 12 play. The Clones rank just 13th in the conference in turnover rate, while Houston leads the league and ranks fifth nationally in turning over opponents.
If outside shots aren’t falling for Iowa State, scoring against Houston will prove challenging. It’s impossible to get out in transition against the Coogs with how well they control the offensive glass, and they have endless athleticism and size to throw at Jefferson when he plays in the mid-post and on the block.
The Coogs are also the nation’s best pick-and-roll defense, per Synergy, and Iowa State runs a ton of ball screens for its talented backcourt.
The under is the play in this game. Both teams can defend the other’s primary actions, and both will be forced to play in the half-court, limiting possessions.
Expect a war on both ends of the floor as two defensive heavyweights trade blows for 40 minutes.
My Pick: Under 134.5
