The Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing, MI. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Michigan State is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -115. The total is set at 143.5 points.
Here’s my Illinois vs. Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks for February 7, 2026.
Illinois vs Michigan State Prediction
My Pick: Illinois ML -105
My Illinois vs Michigan State best bet is on the Illini to win outright. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Illinois vs Michigan State Odds
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 143.5 -110 / -110 | -105 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 143.5 -110 / -110 | -115 |
- Illinois vs Michigan State spread: Michigan State -1.5
- Illinois vs Michigan State over/under: 143.5 points
- Illinois vs Michigan State moneyline: Illinois -105, Michigan State -115
Illinois vs Michigan State College Basketball Betting Preview
The Big Ten title race has boiled down to five teams, with the top four critically receiving a double-bye in the conference tournament.
Michigan and Illinois are tied up top with one loss, followed by two-loss Nebraska, and three-loss Michigan State and Purdue. Wisconsin has three losses as well, though most expect the Badgers to lose steam.
Illinois would love to steal a road win to keep pace, while Michigan State looks to avoid a third straight loss that would include sliding back into the middle of the crowded conference pack.
Many will be tuned to Duke and Carolina's ending when this game tips, but all eyes will turn to this Big Ten battle when it gets going.
Illinois Basketball
The Fighting Illini are among the country's hottest teams, boasting the sixth longest active winning streak at 12 games. Illinois hasn't lost since December 13 and hasn't dropped a game to a team outside KenPom's top-25.
Recent wins over Purdue, Nebraska and Iowa have confirmed Illinois as a team with ambitions to play in April. That dream could be a reality, thanks to the three stats where the Illini lead the nation.
First, offensive efficiency. By KenPom's metrics, this is the best offense in the sport in late February. A ton of the credit here goes to freshman star Keaton Wagler. He wasn't a top-100 recruit when he arrived on campus, but he's skyrocketed to being considered an All-American and a first-round pick in June's NBA draft.
His 46-point outing in a win at Purdue is the best individual performance in college hoops this season, though he backed it up with 22- and 28-point outings against Washington and Nebraska.
He's surrounded by capable shooter and secondary scorers, thanks largely to Illinois head coach Brad Underwood's recent successes recruiting Eastern Europeans. Illinois has four Balkans scoring seven or more points per game.
Those European lads also lend heavily to Illinois' next key stat: height. Per KenPom, Illinois has the tallest average team in the nation. Some of that is due to seven-foot tall twins Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic.
It's a remarkable gift for a coach to have two seven-footers, each sinking above the national average from 3-point range on more than three attempts per game.
The only player in Underwood's rotation under 6-foot-6 is veteran guard Kylan Boswell, who's currently sidelined with a hand injury.
It's critical then to look at the final area where Illinois leads the nation: free-throw rate allowed. These big beanstalks use their size and length to force tough shots without giving up freebies at the foul line.
Zvonimir, formerly of Kentucky and Arkansas, is second in the nation in block rate without a single game this season notching more than three fouls.
Perhaps the oddest thing about this Illinois team is the stat in which it's last in the nation: forcing turnovers. Underwood's teams at Stephen F. Austin and Oklahoma State prided themselves on pressure and being among the best in the nation in forcing turnovers.
Now, with the size and skill of his bigs, Underwood has completely flipped. His guards can avoiding reaches and risks, knowing there's tons of rim protection at their back.
Opponents are constantly forced into sub-optimal shot selection.
Michigan State Basketball
It's an interesting time for Spartans basketball. After an 18-2 start, Sparty needed overtime to win at Rutgers, lost a home game versus rival Michigan, and then got upset by Minnesota at The Barn. A two-game losing streak for a very good team isn't a cause for major concern.
The chatter happening around the Michigan State program is a little more concerning. Michigan coach Dusty May called out Michigan State's best player — sophomore point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. — for several borderline plays that looked overaggressive.
One of those plays led to a flagrant foul against Michigan, with a few others getting flagged by eagle-eyed social media users as potentially dangerous.
Fears then repeated the act on the road at Minnesota, including a crotch kick that earned a technical foul, prompting social media and the blogosphere to create even more uproar.
Spartans coach Tom Izzo publicly mused about Fears new reputation and even suggested Fears might see some time on the bench in response, like not starting Saturday's matchup with Illinois.
Fears is regularly playing 30-plus minutes per game while leading the Spartans in scoring and assists. Any absence, unless it's a symbolic one for the opening tip, would be crucial for Michigan State.
That's especially true against a team as good as Illinois. The best teams on Michigan State's schedule — and the teams who have beaten Sparty — have pinpointed Fears as the lynchpin for everything Izzo wants to see offensively.
In wins this season, Fears is shooting 49% from the field and 32% from long range. In Michigan State's four losses, Fears is shooting 31% from the field and just 7% from long range (1-of-14).
He still finds ways to impact the game, even when shooting poorly. Take the loss to Duke, for example. Fears was 0-of-10 from the floor, but he added 13 assists. Arkansas held him without a field goal, yet Fears dropped nine dimes in that game.
Defenses are making other Spartans step up to win games. Those role players have a spotty history in recent weeks.
Illinois vs Michigan State Betting Analysis
I love this matchup for Illinois. The Illini defense is perfectly tuned to answer Fears and his probing attacks into the paint.
Michigan State runs pick-and-roll more than almost anyone. Time and time again, a big will screen for Fears as he quarterbacks the offense for an open teammate or a shot. Illinois has so much length defensively that his passing lanes will be harder to find, and shooting opportunities will be floaters and jumpers, not attacks at the rim.
Fears has a nose for contact and often uses his placement in the pick-and-roll action to draw contact. Illinois is the nation's best team at avoiding fouls.
Few teams waltz into the Breslin Center and get a win. Tom Izzo is 9-6-1 ATS against top-five teams on his home floor since 2005, but the last three such games were outright losses.
I'll take the Illini to make it four in a row.
My Pick: Illinois ML -105
