The Illinois Fighting Illini play the UConn Huskies in the Final Four of the 2026 NCAA Tournament from Indianapolis, Indiana. Tip-off is set for 6:09 p.m. ET on TBS.
Illinois is favored by -2 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. Meanwhile, UConn is the underdog at +2 with a moneyline of +115. The total is set at 139.5 points.
Here’s my Illinois vs. UConn predictions and college basketball picks for April 4, 2026.
Illinois vs UConn Prediction
My Pick: Under 139.5 (Play to 138)
My Illinois vs UConn best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Illinois vs UConn Odds
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -114 | 139.5 -105o / -111u | -135 |
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -106 | 139.5 -105o / -111u | +115 |
- Illinois vs UConn spread: Illinois -2
- Illinois vs UConn over/under: 139.5 points
- Illinois vs UConn moneyline: Illinois -135, UConn +115
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Illinois vs UConn College Basketball Betting Preview
Illinois Basketball
Illinois has been an absolute wagon in the NCAA Tournament, beating all four of its opponents by 10+ points and covering the spread in each contest.
The Fighting Illini lead the sport in offensive efficiency, per KenPom. They shoot an efficient 57.9% on 2s (22nd), but shoot just 34% from 3 (128th). An elite offensive rebounding rate (39.8%) masks some of the shooting issues, but they can get really cold from deep.
Coach Brad Underwood will need his two freshman studs (Keaton Wagler and David Mirkovic) to play well. Wagler is one of the more naturally skilled players in the country.
He puts together some jaw-dropping plays, as he did against Iowa, en route to 25 points. Wagler drills 40% from 3 and will need to do just that in Indy. Mirkovic averages 14 points and 10 rebounds in the NCAA Tournament and is hitting 41% from 3 in those four games.
What's impressed me most about Illinois in the Big Dance is its defense. It held VCU, Houston and Iowa to sub-48% (its season average) shooting from 2-point range. The on-ball defense from Andrej Stojakovic and Kylan Boswell has been suffocating in the tourney.
Stojakovic is the perfect "sixth man" for Illinois. He plays more minutes than Jake Davis, but comes in fresh around the under 16-minute mark in the first half. Unlike his father — Peja — Andrej is a non-shooter, but he plays tough defense and is an elite driver.
UConn Basketball
UConn just finished off one of the most improbable comebacks in NCAA Tournament history. The Huskies trailed by 19 against one-seed Duke and needed a turnover from Cayden Boozer leading to a Braylon Mullins logo 3 for the win. It was what made March Madness awesome.
Now that we know how it got here, how can UConn compete with Illinois?
To me, it starts with shooting, which hasn't been in UConn's favor this tourney. The Huskies shot well in the Michigan State game in the Sweet 16, but they shot below 34% from 3 in the other three games.
Uncoincidentally, the Huskies had good shooting nights from Mullins and Solo Ball in the Michigan State game. Mullins is 5-for-24 (20%) from 3 in the NCAA Tournament, and Ball is 3-for-21 (14%). These are two legitimate starters who play 30+ minutes per game who have shot it terribly for the Huskies.
We can dissect that in two ways: UConn got here with that poor shooting, but can it make it further without it? I don't think UConn can win this game if it shoots this poorly from 3 again.
Tarris Reed Jr. carried UConn to the Final Four in many ways. The stud big man averaged 21 points and 13 rebounds per game in the NCAA Tournament, including 26 points, nine boards and four blocks against Duke.
He'll look to take advantage of the Ivisic brothers' interior defense, and that'll be a favorable matchup for the Huskies' big man.
On the defensive end, UConn is back to being elite, ranking ninth in defensive efficiency. It holds opponents to 30% shooting from 3 (30th) and 46% shooting on 2s (13th). The only issue is that the Huskies are quite physical, which can lead to fouling.
Illinois doesn't get to the line much, so I'm curious to see which team wins the free-throw battle here.
Illinois vs UConn Pick, Betting Analysis
I'm eyeing the total. It sits at 139.5, and we're looking at a pair of slow-paced teams that don't reach the foul line much. UConn is 306th in free-throw rate, and Illinois is 233rd in the same category. Plus, the Huskies are 319th in adjusted tempo and Illinois is 296th.
Sure, Illinois can get hot from deep, but both teams have dealt with real shooting issues this season. In the bright lights of the Final Four, I expect a game played in the 60s, thus hitting the under.
I think I would lean towards Illinois if I had to pick a side, but I don't love it. Illinois is easier to trust on the offensive end, but this UConn defense can shut things down in a hurry.
Illinois is elite on the offensive glass, as I said, but UConn tends to limit teams to one shot. If UConn can keep Illinois off the offensive glass, it has a good chance to win, but the Huskies are very capable of shooting 25% from 3.
It's tough to know which version of the Huskies will show up.
My Pick: Under 139.5 (Play to 138)
