Friday’s College Basketball Betting Previews: Indiana-Maryland, Purdue-Wisconsin
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Carsen Edwards and Ethan Happ
Even though just one ranked team takes the court on Friday evening, it tips off an intriguing two-game docket in Big Ten play. No. 22 Indiana travels to face a red-hot Maryland team before Purdue and Wisconsin tangle in Madison.
Where’s the value in these contests? Let’s break them down.
>> All odds as of Thursday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NCAAB odds and track your bets.
Betting Odds: Indiana Hoosiers at Maryland Terrapins
- Spread: Maryland -5.5
- Over/Under: 142.5
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV: FS1
The Hoosiers are coming off a beatdown at Michigan and will be without point guard Rob Phinisee (concussion) and possibly 6-foot-10 power forward De’Ron Davis (ankle).
Indiana’s biggest issue this season remains slow starts, as it’s been outscored in the first 10 minutes of action by seven of its nine top-115 KenPom opponents.
Despite the Hoosiers missing their floor general, coach Archie Miller noted that wing Romeo Langford (18.2 points per game) could handle the ball more moving forward.
The 6-foot-6 Langford has struggled as a perimeter threat, so this decision would pay major dividends against the Terrapins, giving Langford the chance utilize his sound drive-and-kick game from the get-go.
Mark Turgeon’s unit has yielded 33.7% of its opponents’ scoring from the perimeter, while Indiana is shooting 36.0% on 3s. Its personnel doesn’t match up well with Langford, either.
Maryland will boast a size advantage in the paint — even if Davis doesn’t suit up — but don’t let that dominate the perception of this contest.
The Terps faced a similarly structured Nebraska team recently, and the game came down to the wire.
Terrapins big man Bruno Fernando (14.2 ppg) has struggled with turnovers, too, and Indiana has taken advantage of that department all season — via its 20.3% opponents’ turnover rate.
THE PICK: Hoosiers +5.5
Betting Odds: Purdue Boilermakers at Wisconsin Badgers
- Spread: Wisconsin -4.5
- Over/Under: 136.5
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- TV: FS1
Similar to their in-state rivals, the Boilermakers will be without an impactful player in stretch forward Evan Bordeaux. But it’ll opens the door for 6-foot-9 Trevion Williams, who’s been a major difference-maker inside since Matt Painter inserted him into the rotation.
Whether or not Williams starts, the Badgers have yielded 55.1% of their opponents’ scoring to come inside the arc — the 27th-highest rate in the country.
Purdue is at its best when attacking inside-out, especially with the likes of preseason All-American Carsen Edwards (24.5 ppg).
With Wisconsin generating the 41st-lowest offensive rebounding rate in the nation, look for the Boilermakers to control the glass and the tempo.
Their 17.3-second average possession length is roughly the average in Division I, but Edwards & Co. will often push the pace in transition.
At the other end, the Badgers’ slight height advantage won’t be a huge factor against Purdue’s interior defense, as it’s allowing the opposition to manufacture just 41.9% of its offense from 2-point land — the 16th-lowest percentage in college basketball.
The 6-foot-6 Nojel Eastern has been an underrated factor in that area, with his size limiting opposing guards’ dribble penetration.
Big Ten teams are 17-14-1 (54.8%) ATS as road dogs this season, according to our Bet Labs data. This one is bound for a tight finish.
THE PICK: Boilermakers +4.5