The Iowa Hawkeyes play the Florida Gators in the second round of the NCAA Tournament from Tampa, Florida. Tip-off is set for 7:10 p.m. ET on TBS.
Florida is favored by -10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -630. Meanwhile, Iowa is the underdog at +10.5 with a moneyline of +450. The total is set at 145.5 points.
Here’s my Iowa vs. Florida predictions and college basketball picks for March 22, 2026.
Iowa vs Florida Prediction
My Pick: Florida -10.5 (Play to -12)
My Iowa vs Florida best bet is on the Gators to cover spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Iowa vs Florida Odds
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 145.5 -110o / -110u | +450 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 145.5 -110o / -110u | -630 |
- Iowa vs Florida spread: Florida -10.5
- Iowa vs Florida over/under: 145.5 points
- Iowa vs Florida moneyline: Iowa +450, Florida -630
Iowa vs Florida College Basketball Betting Preview
Iowa Basketball
Ben McCollum will coach his team to play his style, no matter what. Iowa scored just 67 points, but it equaled 1.25 points per possession due to the low-possession games the Hawkeyes covet.
I think this matchup will be tough for the Hawkeyes. If they can't control the tempo and get stuck in a full-court game, it could get ugly.
From a pure talent standpoint, Iowa is pretty mediocre. Bennett Stirtz is an absolute monster, though. He leads the team with 19.6 points and 4.4 assists per game while shooting 48% from the field. The only other double-digit scorer on the roster is forward Tavion Banks with 10.3 points per game.
McCollum could use another 14-point outing from the skilled big man Alvaro Folgueiras. He looked the best he has in months against Clemson.
On the defensive end, the Hawkeyes have to force turnovers in this one. They force turnovers 20% of the time, and that's required because opponents shoot 53% on 2s (279th) and 33% from 3 (163rd) against them.
McCollum often relies on the "let Bennett cook" offense. It's quite effective due to his dominance, as Iowa is 29th in offensive efficiency. The Hawkeyes will usually drain the clock and let Stirtz create something with 12 seconds or less on the clock in order to play their desired tempo.
The first five-to-seven minutes of this game will be huge for Iowa. Early in the Clemson game, Iowa hit a couple of 3s, with Kael Combs leading the charge. Then, McCollum motioned Stirtz to slow down the pace. Once the Hawkeyes get a lead, it's time to lull the opponent to sleep. We'll see if that lifts or buries the No. 9 seed.
Florida Basketball
Florida just had one of the most lopsided first-round games, beating Prairie View A&M, 114-55. At one point, the Gators were tied 15-15 in the first half and then put their foot on the gas.
That's why I think Florida can make life tough on Iowa. The Gators love playing fast, ranking 29th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom.
They're also a historically dominant rebounding team, grabbing 43% of their own misses and holding teams to a 23% offensive rebound rate. That toughness and physical play can wear teams down.
Coach Todd Golden trots out the same three starting bigs he did en route to a title last season: Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh and Rueben Chinyelu.
Haugh leads the Gators in scoring, up to 17 points per game, and he can hit an occasional 3. Condon still can't shoot, but he's one of the best passing bigs in the country (3.5 APG) and averages 14.5 points per game.
Chinyelu is the heart and soul of this Florida team. He averages 11.2 points, 11.5 rebounds and plays with relentless effort for 25-30 minutes.
Oh, by the way, backup center 7-footer Micah Handlogten averages six boards in 15 minutes a night.
The only way a team can beat Florida is by shooting it well from deep. It specializes in forcing teams into tough 2s, as it can sink the defense in and make them take shots that benefit the Gators. They limit opponents to 44% shooting on 2s, and opponents shoot them on 77% of field goal attempts.
So, teams usually have to just launch 3s early and pray for the best.
If Florida has one drawback, it's shooting. For the season, Florida shoots 31% from 3, which flies in the face of the modern era of basketball. That number is up to 35% since February, and it can atone for the shooting issues on the glass.
Iowa vs Florida Pick, Betting Analysis
I'm taking Florida here. It's been operation fade Iowa for a while (besides the Clemson game), and I just can't see the Hawkeyes hanging here.
The Gators play games under their terms, and Iowa will look like a fish out of water having to play fast.
Iowa is usually a good rebounding team, but it's never seen Florida.
And even good rebounding teams can look mediocre against an opponent built to pound you on the glass.
My Pick: Florida -10.5 (Play to -12)
