The Kentucky Wildcats take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in Fayetteville, Arkansas. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Arkansas is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -350. The total is set at 162 points.
Here’s my Kentucky vs. Arkansas predictions and college basketball picks for January 31, 2026.
Kentucky vs Arkansas Prediction
My Pick: Over 163 or Better
My Kentucky vs Arkansas best bet is on the over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Kentucky vs. Arkansas Odds
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 162 -110o / -110u | +275 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 162 -110o / -110u | -350 |
- Kentucky vs Arkansas spread: Arkansas -7
- Kentucky vs Arkansas over/under: 162
- Kentucky vs Arkansas moneyline: Kentucky +275, Arkansas -350
Kentucky vs Arkansas College Basketball Betting Preview
It's a shame this game is in Fayetteville instead of Lexington. John Calipari, now two seasons removed from his tenure at Kentucky, might've found a little extra joy returning to Lexington to find Big Blue Nation once again embroiled in drama and questioning its head coach.
Still, Calipari will take solace in hosting his former employer in front of 19,000 screaming Hogs fans, with a better record, better team and better chance to make a run this March.
That alone makes this a great game to watch on a cold winter Saturday, but add in the implications for the SEC standings, and this one is a must-see matchup.
Kentucky Basketball
Kentucky essentially ran Calipari out of town, sick of him building teams that were talented, but flawed. His final few Kentucky teams were athletic and had tons of playmaking, but desperately lacked shooting to spread the floor.
Two years in Mark Pope's tenure and those same issues have re-emerged. Pope used Kentucky's considerable NIL funds to woo some of the nation's top transfers and freshmen to join returning potential All-American Otega Oweh. Unfortunately, Oweh has failed to meet expectations, in part due to the roster constructed around him.
Mark Pope prefers an up-tempo offense, stretched wide by frequent 3-point attempts from deadeye shooters. His last team at BYU was in the top five nationally of 3-point rate, and he's had multiple teams place among the best 3-point shooting teams in country by percentage, including last season at Kentucky.
Last season's Cats featured Koby Brea leading the SEC in 3-point shooting at 44%, taking six per game, with Jaxson Robinson taking seven more.
This season, Collin Chandler is Kentucky's best pure shooter and he's only firing 4.4 attempts per game. Kentucky has more players with 15 long-range attempts this season making under 30% (three) than over 40% (none).
Making matters worse, Pope has limited tools in his belt in trying to fix things, as the injury bug attacks this Kentucky roster. Point guard Jaland Lowe is out for the season following surgery, with bench contributor Kam Williams unlikely to return.
Jayden Quaintance, a projected first-round draft pick, has been sidelined with a swollen knee with no timetable to return. Just four of Pope's top players have played in every game this season.
His ability to find a lineup that works at both ends of the floor gets much tougher when he doesn't even know which players are available game-to-game.
Arkansas Basketball
Calipari has a reputation in college basketball as a recruiter first, well beyond his ability as a schemer or in-game tactician.
While you can't question his ability to get the best high school players in the country to join him at Memphis, Kentucky — and now Arkansas — he absolutely deserves more respect for putting those players in position to succeed.
Arkansas is currently ranked as the sixth-most efficient offense in the nation. That would be Calipari's seventh time leading a top-10 offense in the country this century and the 16th time his team would finish in the top 25 of that metric.
He's done it with guards leading the way, some of the best in recent college basketball history, and had just as many seasons led by a dominant big man.
This team is built around its backcourt, with freshman tandem Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas posting 35 combined points per night, with Acuff adding the most total assists in SEC play this season.
The Hogs are at their best when this duo is leading the break. Arkansas runs in transition at the 98th percentile in college hoops and scores 1.39 points per possession on those chances, the 94th-percentile mark for transition scoring, per Hoop-Explorer.
Both Acuff and Thomas are skilled working off a ball screen. Arkansas scores 1.28 points per possession off pick-and-roll actions, a 98th-percentile outcome.
Kentucky vs. Arkansas Betting Analysis
There's a decent chance Arkansas grabs control of this game and runs away with it, yet I'm on high alert of a bounce back performance after Kentucky was run off the floor at Vanderbilt on Tuesday night.
Instead of betting on Kentucky's chances to keep this close or steal a win, I'm eyeing the total.
Those stats above about Arkansas in transition? Kentucky runs more often and is better at scoring in transition. Both of these teams want to push the pace when they have the ball. Arkansas ranks 24th nationally in tempo, while Kentucky is just 168th, but a lot of that comes on the defensive end of the floor.
Kentucky's average offensive possession ranks 42nd quickest in the country, while opponents rank 338th against the Kentucky defense. Arkansas has seen much of the same, ranking 20th offensively but 223rd defensively.
When Kentucky has played fast teams, the Cats have happily joined the track meet. Games against Alabama and Louisville topped 70 possessions and this listed total.
Arkansas has been ready to run, especially when the opponent agrees. Three Razorback games have topped 80 possessions this season, with the average score in Arkansas' 21 games reaching nearly 167 points.
These teams are ready to run, so hop on the over.
It's worth mentioning that our Action PRO Report has tracked sharp money hitting the Over — we're on the right side.
My Pick: Over 163 or Better
