The Kentucky Wildcats take on the Florida Gators in Gainesville, Florida. Tip-off is set for 3 p.m. ET on ABC.
Florida is favored by 11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -750. The total is set at 152.5 points.
Here’s my Kentucky vs. Florida prediction and college basketball picks for February 14, 2026.
Kentucky vs Florida Prediction
My Pick: Florida -11.5 (Play to -13.5)
My Kentucky vs Florida best bet is on the Gators to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Kentucky vs. Florida Odds
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 152.5 -110o / -110u | +525 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 152.5 -110o / -110u | -750 |
- Kentucky vs Florida spread: Florida -11.5
- Kentucky vs Florida over/under: 152.5 points
- Kentucky vs Florida moneyline: Kentucky +525, Florida -750
Kentucky vs Florida College Basketball Betting Preview
Kentucky Basketball
I think we can officially dub this Kentucky team the "Cardiac Cats." For the second time, Tennessee had the Cats buried, but they came back from a 14+ point deficit. Kentucky has a 17-7 record and 8-3 mark in SEC play, which isn't bad for a short-handed team.
Since January 1, Kentucky is 8-3 and 43rd in Bart Torvik's rankings. During the hot streak, the Wildcats have lived at the foul line (44% free-throw rate). The rest of their offense is shaky, shooting 51% on 2s (189th) and 35% from deep (115th).
Otega Oweh is the go-to guy for the Wildcats, which is no surprise because he was the SEC Preseason Player of the Year. During the 11 games in 2026, Oweh has scored 20+ points in nine of them. He's answered the call when Kentucky needed him to be a superstar.
The Wildcats only have one other double-digit scorer (Denzel Aberdeen, 12.3 PPG). In short, if Kentucky wants to compete against Florida, Oweh has to score 20+ points.
The Cats do well limiting turnovers (14%) and also grab offensive boards at a 34% rate.
Defensively, Kentucky is 32nd in defensive efficiency for the season, per KenPom. However, Bart Torvik has the Cats at 63rd over their last 11 games.
So, what's changed? Their rim-protection has fallen off a cliff, as they hold teams to 48% on 2s for the season, but it's up to 51% in 2026.
And finally, how about a homecoming for Aberdeen? He played a key bench role for Florida's national title team and bolted for Kentucky this summer.
Florida Basketball
You know I love my "since January 1" stats. So, let me give you a good one: The top two teams in Bart Torvik's rankings since Jan. 1 played in last season's title game — Houston at No. 1 and Florida at No. 2
Todd Golden is always vocal about dominating the possession battle, and nobody dominates it more than the Gators. They grab offensive rebounds at a 42.7% rate — the second-best nationally, only behind Tennessee.
Usually, I'm pretty lukewarm on teams that can't shoot, and Florida is 349th with a 29% 3-point percentage. Florida is one of the few exceptions, though.
For one, the Gators might have a path to improving their shooting if Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland suddenly discover their stroke. Fland is shooting 18% from deep and Lee is at 25%, so I think that's a lost cause. Lee has begun to lose minutes to Urban Klavzar, who drills 40% from downtown.
Even if Florida doesn't shoot it better, it usually makes the most of its missed 3s because of offensive rebounding. Stud center Rueben Chinyelu grabbed 15+ boards in three straight contests. Plus, Thomas Haugh, who should be in the SEC Player of the Year conversation, and Alex Condon are strong on the glass.
Now, let's talk about the Gators' defense, which ranks fifth in efficiency, per KenPom. Trying to score inside on Florida is a fool's errand — it holds teams to 44% shooting on 2s.
All the length that Florida has and the switchability of Chinyelu is a game-changer. Thus, the only real path to beating Florida's offense is tossing up prayer 3s or trying to draw fouls.
I think we know which path Kentucky will take.
Kentucky vs. Florida Betting Analysis
Florida should hammer Kentucky on the glass and continue its streak of dominance.
Over the Gators' last four games, they're 4-0 with four wins by 19+ points, including road victories over Texas A&M and Georgia.
With the spread sitting at 11.5, I'm going with the Gators. I expect their interior depth to wear down Kentucky's shaky depth.
My Pick: Florida -11.5 (Play to -13.5)
