The Louisville Cardinals take on the Miami Hurricanes in the 2026 ACC Tournament in Charlotte, N.C., on Thursday, March 12. Tip-off is set for 2:30 p.m. ET on ESPN Networks.
Louisville is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -141. Meanwhile, Miami is the underdog at +2.5 with a moneyline of +120. The total is set at 156.5 points.
Here’s my Louisville vs. Miami prediction and college basketball picks for Thursday, March 12.
Louisville vs Miami Prediction
My Pick: Miami ML +120
My Louisville vs Miami best bet is on the Hurricanes to win outright. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Louisville vs Miami Odds
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -118 | 154.5 -105o / -115u | -142 |
| Miami (FL) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -102 | 154.5 -105o / -115u | +120 |
- Louisville vs Miami spread: Louisville -1.5
- Louisville vs Miami over/under: 154.5 points
- Louisville vs Miami moneyline: Louisville -142, Miami (FL) +120
Louisville vs Miami College Basketball Betting Preview
Miami finished out the regular season with a loss to Louisville, but the Hurricanes will get a chance to avenge the defeat in the ACC Tournament.
The Canes scored 1.38 points per possession in that win, but they also allowed 1.48 PPP. It's tough to win when a defense gives up that many points.
I feel like it's more of a one-off, though, and a fairly emblematic game of what Louisville is. For one, the Cardinals attempt 3s on a nation-leading 53% of their shots. When the shots fall, the Cards can beat anybody; when the shots don't fall, they're very beatable.
Louisville will rely heavily on Ryan Conwell to pick up the slack of not having Mikel Brown Jr. Conwell scored 24 in the win over Miami in the regular-season finale, and most of his buckets are pure iso looks. He can drive and create 3s, but Louisville is more reliant on iso scoring without Brown.
Don't sleep on Louisville on the defensive end. It held SMU to 58 points, which boosted its defensive efficiency to 26th nationally. The Cardinals limit teams to 48% shooting on 2s and 32% from deep.
I think Miami has some real matchup advantages over Louisville. The big men for the Hurricanes are scary. Malik Reneau is a monster. He leads the team with 19 points per game and is even shooting 36.8% from deep.
The uber-athletic Shelton Henderson, who plays the three at 6-foot-6, 240 pounds, should be able to beat his defender, whether it be Isaac McKneely or Conwell.
Miami head coach Jai Lucas loves finding plays for point guard Tre Donaldson to find Ernest Udeh Jr. on a lob. It's a very common trend in most Miami games, and Udeh adds 7.1 points and 9.4 rebounds per game.
On the defensive end, Miami's size is felt. It ranks 35th in defensive efficiency and limits teams to 50% shooting on 2s, while forcing turnovers 18% of the time.
The only issue is defending the arc, as opponents shoot 35% from deep. That could be worrisome against the highest volume shooting team in America. However, Louisville went 12-of-24 from deep and beat Miami by just three in Coral Gables.
In all, we're running the same play from Wednesday back: Fading Louisville without Brown. This team just isn't the same without him running the show.
My Pick: Miami ML +120
