The LSU Tigers take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in Fayetteville, Arkansas. Tip-off is set for 5 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Arkansas is favored by 10.5 points on the spread with a price of 84 cents to win and the total set at 163.5 points on Fanatics Markets.
Here’s my LSU vs. Arkansas prediction and college basketball picks for January 24, 2026.
LSU vs Arkansas Prediction
My Pick: Arkansas -10.5
My LSU vs Arkansas best bet is on the Razorbacks to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
LSU vs. Arkansas Odds
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LSU vs Arkansas College Basketball Betting Preview
LSU’s Athletic Director has made it clear that if the Tigers don’t make the NCAA Tournament, head coach Matt McMahon is gone. That’s a lot of heat on the fourth-year coach’s seat, and unfortunately, LSU isn't in a great position for an at-large bid.
Despite ranking top-45 in KenPom, the Tigers are 1-5 in the SEC and desperate for quality wins. A victory at Bud Walton would qualify.
LSU has been great from an ATS standpoint, covering three of its last four and six of its last eight contests, but actual wins have eluded the Tigers.
Starting point guard Dedan Thomas Jr. returned last game against Florida after a five-game absence, and that’s crucial for the Tigers’ tourney chances. He still might be ramping up after just 17 minutes against the Gators, but any sort of playing time helps.
Per CBB Analytics, Thomas ranks in the 95th percentile nationally in on/off net rating.
To beat Arkansas, LSU needs to find a way to score. The Tigers are last in the SEC in offense (per KenPom), driven by poor ball handling and finishing inside the arc.
While LSU leads the country on the season in field goal percentage at the rim, the Tigers rank just 69th since SEC play began, and their paint field goal percentage has tanked from 67th to 262nd (all stats per CBB Analytics).
Offense is dictated by Thomas and often runs through Mike Nwoko and Marquel Sutton on the block. The lone 3-point threat is Max Mackinnon.
Arkansas has been vulnerable at the rim this season (just 352nd in field goal percentage allowed), but the Razorbacks have held their own in the paint and have given fierce resistance to post-ups, per Synergy.
The Hogs will look to exploit LSU’s turnover issues on this end, as they rank second in the conference in turnover rate. Forcing live ball turnovers will lead to more opportunities for buckets in transition, where Arkansas thrives.
The Razorbacks rank 23rd in field goal attempt rate in transition and 18th in points per possession in transition, per Synergy. LSU has only been OK keeping its foes at bay in the open floor, but it hasn’t seen a transition offense like Arkansas’ this season.
In the half-court, look for Arkansas to use its excessive guard talent to score in one-on-one situations and create off the bounce. Freshmen Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas have been excellent all season.
The Hogs don’t turn it over and light the nets on fire on the offensive end, which has sparked their run to the nation’s No. 6 offensive ranking, per KenPom.
Bud Walton Arena is one of the toughest places to play in the country. KenPom ranks Arkansas’ home court advantage as one of the top 20 in the nation, and the Hogs are undefeated straight-up and 7-2 ATS as a favorite at Bud this season.
LSU will need to find another gear to not only beat Arkansas on the road but even cover.
Arkansas takes this one by double digits and continues its crawl up the NCAA Tournament seed line.
My Pick: Arkansas -10.5
