6 March Madness Best Bets for Thursday Evening

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March Madness is off and running, and we have you covered throughout the day, weekend and entire event.

Here's March Madness best bets and our staff's six picks for Thursday evening's games on March 21.

College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By Shane McNichol

There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of a Ducks team that needed to win the Pac-12 Tournament to find their way here — especially when the committee has them hopping across the country to Pittsburgh to play this game.

Oregon’s resume, however, was dinged by injuries all season long.

N’Faly Dante, who went 12-of-12 from the field in the Pac-12 title game, didn’t play until mid-January. Keeshawn Barthelemy and Mookie Cook were expected to be major factors for Oregon, but both were lost to injuries.

Oregon’s injury report made every game plan a moving target. Add in the growth of freshman guard Jackson Shelstad, and this isn't the Ducks team we saw a few months ago.

They draw a South Carolina team that’s seeded correctly by resume but overseeded by talent and potential. The Gamecocks are 49th by KenPom behind a handful of double-digit seeds.

Some of that is due to KenPom’s “luck” factor, which measures how much better a team’s record is than its per-possession play. South Carolina is the “luckiest” team in the tournament.

CBS Sports’ Matt Norlander included in his bracket round-up that the luckiest team in the last 20 NCAA Tournaments has lost its first-round game 17 times.

Lastly, while Lamont Paris is getting a lot of buzz for coaching awards this season, Dana Altman is 15-6-1 ATS lifetime in the NCAA Tournament.

Pick: Oregon -1

By D.J. James

Colorado State routed Virginia in the 10-seed play-in game on Tuesday, and the Rams are just getting started.

This 7-10 matchup is one of the most intriguing of the first round, with CSU’s Isaiah Stevens matching up with Texas’ Max Abmas.

Colorado State could have an edge, having already notched a warm-up game in the tournament. Plus, the Rams are a top-40 offensive and defensive team, per KenPom.

They can shoot from deep with Nique Clifford and Stevens. The Longhorns don’t yield many 3-point attempts, but they allow opponents to shoot about 35% from outside. These two could be a problem.

Texas also ranks poorly in Open 3 Rate, per ShotQuality, so it gives up efficient shots from outside.

CSU’s biggest issue is offensive rebounding, but it shoots almost 58% from 2-point range, so the Rams can take advantage of holes in the Longhorns' defense.

Additionally, Texas isn’t very sharp in the rebounding department, providing another boost to CSU.

Lastly, Texas can force turnovers, but Colorado State takes care of the ball. The Longhorns don’t, so the Rams can prevent Texas — one of the most efficient transition teams in the country — from getting into a groove.

Colorado State is experienced, with a bevy of seniors and grad students in its lineup. The Rams are ready for a run and should make it to the next round.

Take them to a pick’em.

Pick: Colorado State +2.5 (Play to PK)

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By Patrick Strollo

In a return to his hometown, Kentucky head coach John Calipari and the Wildcats will play the Oakland Golden Grizzlies in Pittsburgh this evening.

This game features the highest total of the day, and I'm strongly convinced that the under is the move in this opening-round contest.

While neither team possesses an elite defense, I do think that Kentucky will be able to do enough to fluster a down-tempo Oakland team against a number that's too high.

My model is projecting the total for this game at 155.5 points and the driving force behind the difference between my model and the market that oddsmakers have is attributable to the relative offensive under production of Oakland.

The Golden Grizzlies rank 129th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, averaging 107.8 points per 100 possessions this season.

What's slowed Oakland down this season is its tempo. It ranks 223rd in the nation in Adjusted Tempo, and I expect this slower style of play to be the primary driver of an under-cash in this game.

Oakland won’t be able to run with Kentucky for a full 40 minutes, so it'll be forced to slow things down and disrupt the rhythm of the up-tempo Kentucky offense. Unlike the Golden Grizzlies, the Wildcats play very fast, so the only way to neutralize them is to temper the pace of the game.

I recommend betting the under in this game, and I would play this at 159.5 or higher.

Pick: Under 162.5 (Play to 159.5)

By Brett Pund

We all want to find a Cinderella team to back to make a deep run in March, but I’m just not buying the hype of this McNeese State squad.

It also doesn’t help that Gonzaga has multiple advantages on both ends of the floor.

On offense, the Zags do most of their damage from inside the arc, which starts with playing through big man Graham Ike. Gonzaga ranks inside the top 30 in mid-range attempts per 100 possessions, according to Haslametrics.

This is the same team that ranks 13th in mid-range shooting percentage and first in the country in shooting percentage on near-proximity attempts. When you add this all up, Gonzaga is ninth in the percentage of points that come from 2-pointers.

Meanwhile, McNeese has allowed the eighth-highest shooting percentage to opponents from shots inside the arc since February. The Cowboys are also outside the top 220 in opponents’ near-proximity shooting percentage.

On the other end of the floor, Will Wade’s team has three key avenues to scoring points, which are free throws, points off steals and second-chance points. However, the Zags give away turnovers and foul at low rates, and they’re the better rebounding team.

I also have to point at the difference in schedule, as McNeese has played only one NCAA Tournament team. Gonzaga has won at Kentucky and Saint Mary’s since February, and I just like this matchup here in the first round.

Pick: Gonzaga -6.5

By Matt Gannon

A lot is to be made about this McNeese State team. Wade's baby is an extremely popular 12 over 5 in bracket pools and in the betting streets.

Don't get me wrong — this McNeese team is very talented and deserves to be in the NCAA Tournament. But there’s little respect being given to Gonzaga.

McNeese won a whopping 30 games this season, which is nearly as much as any team in the country.

A lot of people are talking about its weak first few games, but McNeese has wins over VCU, Michigan and UAB. One of these teams is playing in the tournament, and VCU narrowly missed out on the field.

The Cowboys can score, ranking inside the top 45 nationally in effective field goal percentage, 2-point percentage and 3-point percentage. These are elite metrics, but they have a very different strength of schedule gap from their opponent.

Gonzaga is being looked over more than ever. It’s used to being a popular Final Four pick, but this year's squad is a tad weaker than Zags teams of the past.

That’s exactly what Mark Few wants.

An under-the-radar Gonzaga team is a dangerous Gonzaga team. This squad has shown flashes of brilliance, and I wouldn’t be shocked if it ran laps around McNeese.

Although the Cowboys can score a little bit, they’re not nearly as athletic as Gonzaga and lack a ton of size.

The popular 12-seed will go down tonight, and the Zags will turn some heads while moving on.

Pick: Gonzaga -6.5 (Play to -8.5)

By John Feltman

A classic 12/5 matchup tips off in the Midwest Region, and I really like Wade’s Cowboys in the matchup.

McNeese guard Shahada Wells — a TCU transfer — is the most talented player in the contest, and his ability to take control of a game shouldn't be overlooked.

The Bulldogs have been a team on the rise of late but fell short in the WCC Championship game. Many view the Zags as an unstoppable force inside, thanks to big men Graham Ike, Braden Huff and Ben Gregg.

Despite the significant height advantage, don’t sleep on the Cowboys. They’re excellent in offensive turnover percentage, effective field goal percentage and free-throw rate.

To no surprise, their interior scoring takes a step back due to their limited size, but they can make up for that with their excellent 3-point shooting.

As hot as the Bulldogs have been on the offensive end, they’re due for some negative regression. Wade’s team has had an extended period of time to prepare for their first tournament game, and I wouldn't be surprised to see new wrinkles on the offensive and defensive end that confuse the Zags.

At the very least, the Cowboys should cover the number. They’re also an excellent choice for a moneyline round-robin underdog.

Pick: McNeese +7 (Play to +6)