As we head into the Elite Eight, the slate tightens, but the edges don’t disappear. Coaching mismatches, rest spots and repeatable tournament notes continue to show up — just in more condensed, higher-leverage spots.
From elite ATS coaches still dancing to teams navigating short turnarounds, there’s still plenty to mine beneath the surface.
Here are my March Madness betting trends, stats and notes for the Elite Eight.
Matchups: Saturday Games
(9) Iowa vs. (3) Illinois
Iowa is the 11th team to enter the Elite Eight after having 250-1 or higher odds to win it all entering the NCAA Tournament. Of those 11 teams, only two others had pulled off a double-digit spread upset: 2022 St. Peter’s and 2011 VCU.
Iowa entered the tournament with 12 losses, third-most of those eleven 250-1 or higher teams, behind just 2017 Xavier and 2016 Syracuse, both with 13 losses.
Brad Underwood has coached in 20 total NCAA Tournament games with Illinois, Oklahoma State and Stephen F. Austin — in those games, his teams have performed better ATS when time to prep:
• Round 64/Sweet Sixteen: 9-3 ATS
• Round 32/Elite Eight: 3-5 ATS
Iowa and Drake have competed well under Ben McCollum on short prep (two days or less), going 11-7 SU. When he’s a dog of 3+ in this spot, he’s 5-1 ATS.
Illinois is outscoring its opponents by 22.3 PPG entering the Elite Eight — the same mark as Arizona has beaten its opponents by. Since 1985, only three teams, seeded third or worse, have outscored their opponents by 67+ pts entering an Elite Eight: 2026 (3) Illinois, 2012 (7) Florida and 2008 (3) Louisville. Both Florida and Louisville lost in the Elite Eight.
Illinois beat Houston in the Elite Eight, with the game played in Texas. This is the 13th time since 1985 a team has defeated an opponent in the Sweet Sixteen in their home state — those teams are 4-8 SU in the quick turn Elite Eight. Even favorites are just 3-5 SU in the Elite Eight in this spot.
Illinois has dominated Iowa in recent meetings. They are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Hawkeyes dating back to the start of COVID in 2020. As a favorite, Illinois has beaten Iowa in nine straight meetings outright.
Since seeding began in 1978, every NCAA champion to play in a conference tournament won at least one game in that appetizer for March Madness. In that span, eight champions never actually had a conference tournament:
If this trend holds, here are some of the candidates this eliminates this year that are still in the field: Michigan State, Illinois, and Alabama.
(2) Purdue vs. (1) Arizona
Arizona crushed Arkansas, scoring 109 points and covering in the Sweet Sixteen. Since 2005, teams to score 100+ points in the Round 64, Sweet Sixteen, or Final Four are 19-9-1 ATS in that quick turn next game.
Purdue was 30-1 to win it all entering the tournament as a 2-seed. Since 1985, we’ve seen 16 top-2 seeds enter the tournament with future odds of 25-1 or longer — none made the title game, with one making the Final Four: Minnesota in 1997. Purdue can join the Gophers.
In quick-turn games — Round 32, Elite Eight, Title game — Matt Painter is 11-5 ATS, with the over 11-5 in those games.
Painter and Purdue have faced seven 1-seeds in the NCAA Tournament — it's 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS in those games.
Arizona is favored over Purdue by about 6 pts. Under Matt Painter, Purdue has played 23 non-conference games as an underdog of 4 points or more — they are 2-21 SU and 8-15 ATS in those games.
Purdue was the preseason favorite entering the regular season and is now a win away from the Final Four. Here are the preseason favorites to make the Final Four since 2009: 2021 Baylor and Gonzaga, 2014 and 2015 Kentucky and 2009 UNC.
Matt Painter is 28-15 ATS in 43 total games in the NCAA Tournament. Painter is 23-7 ATS in the Round of 64 and 32 and just 5-8 ATS in the Sweet Sixteen or later.
Since Arizona won the national title in 1997, no team west of Texas has won it all. We only have one team left in the field that fits this criteria … of course, it's Arizona.
