After a very successful first four days in my March Madness survivor pools — entering the Sweet 16 round with all three entries still standing — let’s dive into some game theory for the later rounds, and touch upon which sides I'm targeting for both Thursday and Friday’s survivor slates.
Survivor Pool Picks for Thursday, March 26
Thursday’s Sweet 16 slate features several matchups that are projected to be very close contests, including Iowa vs. Nebraska and Illinois vs. Houston.
If you hadn't previously been using a long-term strategy in regards to your entry’s ability to go the distance, you must begin to do so in the Sweet 16.
For me, my Final Four picks include Michigan, Arizona, UConn and Illinois — with Michigan prevailing over UConn in the national title game.
That said, my entry must target a matchup that doesn't impact my ability to pick those four teams down the stretch.
No. 4 Nebraska Cornhuskers
vs. No. 9 Iowa
If you read my South Region preview prior to the start of the first round, you would've noticed how high I was on the Cornhuskers as a legit Final Four contender, especially had Florida been upset prior to the Sweet 16 (which is exactly what we saw on Sunday).
While many others used Nebraska early — given how popular a pick Vanderbilt was in the second round to win — I saved Fred Hoiberg’s bunch for this exact reason.
Given that all three of my entries have Nebraska available, I'm willing to take a risk on the Cornhuskers across the board so I can save the winner of Illinois/Houston for an Elite Eight selection.
No. 11 Texas Longhorns
vs. No. 2 Purdue
Like Nebraska, I was very high on the Longhorns heading into the NCAA Tournament, placing a +3500 wager on Texas to make the Elite Eight.
While Texas' upset over Gonzaga in the second round surprised many, I wasn't one of them. I'll be backing Sean Miller’s bunch to pull off another upset over Purdue in the Sweet 16, and I think the Longhorns are a great contrarian survivor selection for Thursday.
Survivor Pool Picks for Friday, March 27
Friday’s Sweet 16 matchups should be far more of a challenge from a survivor perspective, with a slate featuring several national title contenders, including: Duke, Michigan, UConn and Michigan State.
Prior to making your survivor selections for Friday, you first and foremost must have a definitive path to winning your pool.
In clearer terms, by no means should you target selections that diminish your ability to pick your top dogs later in the NCAA Tournament.
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils
vs. No. 5 St. John's
While most will be saving Duke for later in the tournament — specifically the Elite Eight and beyond — I'm not as high on the Blue Devils as a legit title contender. I have two survivor entries with over 2000 entries remaining, so I'll certainly have to get somewhat contrarian to separate myself from the pack.
In this case, I think picking Duke is a good approach in what should be a very close matchup with St. John's.
Duke will be one of two survivor picks I'll include in my larger pool, with the East Region’s second-seeded UConn Huskies as the other.
No. 2 UConn Huskies
vs. No. 3 Michigan State
In my larger survivor pool, I'll split my Friday entries between Duke and UConn, just in case Duke advances to its second consecutive Final Four.
While I think Duke is more likely to prevail in its Sweet 16 matchup, I favor saving UConn for the next round, with the primary reason being that it'll be far easier to gain separation from the pack.
It's far easier to win survivor pools with two No. 1 seeds in your projected Final Four than three. While I favor Duke as my pick for Friday, I think UConn is a great selection as well, just in case we get another chalky Final Four.
