The Maryland Terrapins take on the Virginia Cavaliers in Charlottesville, Virginia. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Virginia is favored by -16.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2800. The total is set at 153.5 points.
Here’s my Maryland vs. Virginia prediction and college basketball picks for December 20, 2025.
Maryland vs Virginia Prediction
My Pick: Virginia -16.5 (Play to -18)
My Maryland vs Virginia best bet is on the Cavs to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Maryland vs. Virginia Odds
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -110 | 153.5 -115 / -105 | +1160 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -110 | 153.5 -115 / -105 | -2800 |
- Maryland vs Virginia spread: Virginia -16.5
- Maryland vs Virginia over/under: 153.5 points
- Maryland vs Virginia moneyline: Maryland +1160, Virginia -2800
Maryland vs Virginia College Basketball Betting Preview
Maryland Basketball
It's been a real struggle of late in College Park. Maryland has lost four of five games, all of which have been by 18+ points.
Now, all of them were against far better teams, but Virginia is also a much better team.
Things are getting worse, as the Terps' best player — Pharrel Payne — suffered another leg injury in the loss to Michigan. Payne missed one game with a leg injury earlier this season, and the Terps almost lost to Mount St. Mary's in that game.
Payne leads Maryland with 17.5 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. He's the only real interior threat the Terps have, so this will have to be a perimeter-oriented game.
The Terps are already a poor offense squad, ranking 111th in offensive efficiency. They attempt 3s on 42% of their field goals, and nearly half of their shots came deep in the game without Payne.
David Coit erupted for 41 points and hit eight 3s in that game. To beat Virginia, it'll likely take something similar from the guards.
They turn the ball over 18.9% of the time (265th nationally) and also shoot 47.8% from inside the arc (282nd nationally). Shooting and free throws are the keys for the Terps. I'd guess Maryland shoots 45-50% of its shots from 3, and their guards also want to attack for foul shots.
The guards have been terribly inefficient, though. Coit is shooting 43% from the field and 46% from deep. Myles Rice is similar, shooting 42% overall and 46% from deep. However, top-25 recruit Darius Adams has been awful regardless of where the shots come from.
Defensively, the Terps are 97th, per KenPom. They sit 306th in effective field goal percentage, 245th in 2-point field goal defense and 340th in 3-point defense.
I don't have much faith in the Terps improving on that end with Payne injured.
Virginia Basketball
Virginia is among the highest KenPom risers from the high-major ranks, jumping from 59th in the preseason rankings to 24th today.
Ryan Odom has changed the way Virginia plays basketball. Gone are the days of poor shooting teams under Tony Bennett, and in is a more modern offense under Ryan Odom.
The Cavaliers let it fly from deep, shooting 3s on 45% of their looks while connecting on 40% of them. Plus, they sport a 41.9% offensive rebound rate.
Shooting is the main reason why Virginia ranks 14th in offensive efficiency. It also hits 56% from inside the arc, so 3-pointers aren't the only way Virginia can put up points.
Virginia has a tough lineup to match up with, as all five of its starters can hit shots from deep. Odom went to the European route for Thijs De Ridder and Johann Grunloh, and it's paid dividends. De Ridder leads Virginia in scoring and shoots 43% from deep, while Grunloh is the team leader in rebounding.
On the defensive end, Virginia tends to make things difficult for shooters. It attacks hard on catches, closes out well and coaxes teams into taking 2s, as opponents shoot 3s on 32% of field goals.
The Cavaliers limit teams to 44% on 2s and 30.5% on 3s. So, I buy into Virginia improving from 58th in defensive efficiency.
The only thing Virginia struggles with is rebounding, which Maryland can't expose, but it also doesn't force turnovers.
Regardless, I'll buy into a squad that forces opponents into difficult 2s.
Maryland vs. Virginia Betting Analysis
I'll ride with the favorite here. Virginia is humming right now, beating Dayton by 13 and Texas by 18 in its two recent tough matchups.
From a brand perspective, Maryland is a big one. But the Terps are bad and likely will play without Payne.
Virginia has the perfect personnel to destroy bad teams with its elite shooting and reliable defense. The Terps will be in danger once Virginia begins pounding the paint with Grunloh and De Ridder to open up perimeter looks later on.
That'll be the key to the blowout.
My Pick: Virginia -16.5 (Play to -18)
