College Basketball Odds, Pick for McNeese vs Nicholls

The Southland tournament concludes on Wednesday night in Lake Charles, where heavy favorite McNeese hopes to clinch its first NCAA bid since 2002 in front of its home crowd.

And what a home crowd it was. The Legacy Center was packed to the gills on Tuesday night during the Cowboys’ thrashing of Lamar. Expect another full-throated mob in the stands tonight

Rarely will you see a spread this massive in a conference title game. But McNeese has separated itself from the Southland pack by quite a wide margin.

The situation is challenging for Nicholls. Coached by Division I’s youngest boss, 29-year-old Tevon Saddler, the Colonels survived an overtime battle with Texas A&M-Corpus Christi late Tuesday. That game ended about 17 hours before the title game tips off.

Notably, Colonels' star forward Jamal West should be back after getting ejected from that contest in the second half. It was simply two technical fouls, nothing suspension-worthy — but it is something to watch, just in case.

Just about a year ago, McNeese was in a coaching search after its 11th straight season finishing under .500 overall. The Cowboys also had not registered a winning record in Southland play since 2011-12.

A risky hire in Will Wade turned out to be a home run. He quickly elevated the program with tremendous work in the transfer portal, and the Cowboys became the class of the league overnight.

McNeese has both the best backcourt and the best frontcourt in the league.

Shahada Wells, formerly of UT Arlington and TCU, is borderline unstoppable off the bounce, while one of the few holdovers, Christian Shumate, is a ludicrous athlete and two-way rebounder.

The rest of the rotation is filled with 40% 3-point shooters in Javohn Garcia, DJ Richards and stretch center Antavion Collum or talented role players like CJ Felder from Florida, Mike Saunders from Utah and touted JUCO point guard Omar Cooper.

The wealth of talent overwhelms most Southland foes; McNeese has won 14 of its 19 games against Southland opponents by nine or more points.

Add in that Wade is a high-major-caliber coach, and you have a juggernaut that's a 16-point favorite in a title game.

On the other side, Nicholls is a fascinating story in itself. Saddler was a stunning hire, an alum who played at Nicholls just five years before his hiring.

Like Wade, though, that risky maneuver has looked prescient.

He also found impressive gems in the portal, most notably former South Alabama players West and Diante Smith, and his changing defenses have made it difficult on foes throughout the year.

Per Synergy, the Colonels mixed in zone 30.6% of the time defensively — a top-15 rate nationally — and that has helped keep shooters off balance.

West and Smith are difference-makers on this end, using their impressive length and versatility to disrupt the opposition.

Impressively, Nicholls stood up well against high-level competition in the nonconference despite playing an incredibly challenging schedule. The Colonels won at LSU and South Alabama, narrowly lost at Maryland and Tulane, and gave Mississippi State and Louisiana Tech 40-minute battles.

That did not translate to league bully McNeese, however. The Colonels lost those meetings by 27 and 21, respectively.

Are those first two head-to-head drubbings indicative of what we'll see on Wednesday? Perhaps, as the host Cowboys have a couple of major matchup advantages.

First, McNeese’s ball pressure gave Nicholls fits in both meetings, forcing a combined 38 turnovers across the two games. The Cowboys rank sixth nationally in defensive turnover rate; the Colonels are 306th in that stat on the offensive side.

Additionally, Nicholls’ zone looks leave it exposed on the glass. McNeese gobbled up 22 offensive rebounds combined in the first two contests.

If you’re looking for an edge for Nicholls, it’s shooting. The Colonels can fill it up from deep, and McNeese allows copious looks from beyond the arc. The underdog will need to be scorching to have a chance here.

Still, this Southland season has felt like a coronation for McNeese. The Cowboys won the league by three games and had by far the best offense and defense in the league.

They had an easy victory on Tuesday night, whereas Nicholls needed extra time to survive. Plus, the crowd will be decidedly pro-McNeese.

Pick: McNeese State -15.5 (Play to -17)

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