The No. 11 Miami (OH) RedHawks take on the No.6 Tennessee Volunteers in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 4:25 p.m. ET on TBS.
Tennessee is favored by -11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -600. Meanwhile, Miami (OH) is the underdog at +11.5 with a moneyline of +440. The total is set at 148.5 points.
Here’s my Miami (OH) vs. Tennessee predictions and college basketball picks for March 20, 2026.
Miami (OH) vs Tennessee Prediction
My Pick: Nate Ament Over 27.5 Points & Rebounds | Tennessee 1H -5.5
My Miami (OH) vs Tennessee best bet is on Nate Ament to score 28+ points and rebounds. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Miami (OH) vs Tennessee Odds
| Miami (OH) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | +440 |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
- Miami (OH) vs Tennessee spread: Tennessee -11.5
- Miami (OH) vs Tennessee over/under: 148.5 points
- Miami (OH) vs Tennessee moneyline: Miami (OH) +440, Tennessee -600
Miami (OH) vs Tennessee College Basketball Betting Preview
Miami (OH) Basketball
Upon suffering its first loss of the season to UMass in its MAC Tournament, Miami (OH)'s tournament status was suddenly in jeopardy despite an outrageous 31-1 overall record.
Head coach Travis Steele’s RedHawks ultimately made it into the tournament field via an at-large bid, drawing the 11th-seed play-in game in the Midwest region.
Miami (OH) certainly hushed the doubters with a decisive 10-point victory over a short-handed Mustang squad on Wednesday night, and is now set to meet Barnes’ Volunteers on Friday night with a chance to advance to the second round at stake.
In spite of Miami’s impressive showing in a dominant double-digit victory over SMU, the RedHawks enter Friday’s contest with Tennessee as an 11-point underdog.
The RedHawks are presented with another opportunity to prove the naysayers wrong in what surely would be an exceptional upset over Tennessee.
A great deal of Miami’s historic regular season can be attributed to its well-rounded lineup and deep rotation. Senior guard Peter Suder leads the team in scoring with nearly 15 points per contest, while also recording nearly five rebounds and three assists on average.
Steele’s bunch boasts elite guards, with both Eian Elmer and Luke Skaljac having rather impressive seasons as well. Both guards in this RedHawks backcourt duo are posting double-figure scoring efforts.
The RedHawks' frontcourt also excels on the offensive end of the floor, with sophomore forward Brant Byers scoring nearly 15 points per game.
The versatility and depth of this Miami team have undoubtedly been a large contributing factor to the RedHawks’ vast success all season long, as Miami’s roster features seven players who are scoring upwards of 10 points per contest.
While Steele’s offense ranks ninth nationally with nearly 88 points per contest, it ranks just 70th in the country in offensive efficiency rating, per KenPom.
From top to bottom, Miami boasts a ton of experience and 3-point shooting prowess on its roster, two vital components largely characterizing the type of teams who have previously found success in the month of March.
There's no doubt that the Redhawks’ victory over SMU was rather convincing, but it's important to take note that the Mustangs were without their second-leading scorer, B.J. Edwards.
Miami will have a far tougher test on Friday night, matched up with a Tennessee team that's very well-coached and thrives on both ends of the floor.
Tennessee Basketball
Tennessee had a relatively disappointing conclusion to its season, going 2-4 in its last six games. Freshman star forward Nate Ament also suffering an injury down the stretch, so Tennessee appeared to be in major trouble ahead of the Big Dance.
Fortunately, Ament was able to return to action, and Tennessee is finally back at full strength.
Ament has been phenomenal in his first collegiate season, posting nearly 18 points per contest while also recording nearly seven rebounds on average.
Tennessee’s point guard — Ja’Kobi Gillespie — has had a sensational final collegiate season, leading the Vols in scoring with over 18 points per game for an offense that averages nearly 80 points.
Gillespie was a massive transfer portal acquisition for Barnes this offseason, with the senior guard having previously suited up for both Maryland and Belmont.
Tennessee’s floor general has tremendous versatility at the guard position, while also tallying 5.5 assists to go along with nearly three rebounds on average.
Tennessee’s dynamic duo leads an offense that ranks inside the top 35 nationally in offensive efficiency rating, per KenPom. The sixth seed in the Midwest has been even more efficient on the opposite end of the floor, which should come as no surprise, as Barnes’ tenure in Knoxville has consistently produced top-tier defensive prowess.
Per KenPom, the Volunteers’ defense ranks 15th in college basketball in defensive efficiency rating, allowing opponents just 69 points per contest.
This is remarkable considering the Vols have played an extremely difficult SEC schedule featuring some of the most explosive offenses in the entire country, like Florida, Arkansas and several others.
Miami (OH) vs. Tennessee Betting Analysis
Though there were many doubters in the wake of Miami securing an at-large bid, Steele’s RedHawks proved, at the very least, that they belong in this tournament field.
While I definitely favor Barnes’ Volunteers to reign supreme in this Midwest Region first-round matchup, I was expecting a number far below 11 points after the RedHawks ran the Mustangs off the court in their play-in game.
I don't feel great about laying a big number on the Volunteers, so I'll be taking a more unique approach to betting Friday’s contest.
If there's one area Miami lacks in that could get it into trouble, it's definitely the RedHawks’ lack of size in the paint, with just one player in Steele’s rotation standing above 6-foot-8.
Given how elite Ament has been all season, I suspect Miami’s lack of size and physicality inside the lane will prove very problematic in its success containing the freshman.
That said, I definitely see value in the prop market and will be looking to back the Volunteers’ star freshman to have a massive game, exceeding his points + rebounds total of 27.5. I'm also looking to back Tennessee on the first-half spread (-5.5).
My Pick: Nate Ament Over 27.5 Points & Rebounds | Tennessee 1H -5.5
